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Date: April 30, 2024 Tue
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Results for crime analysis
93 results foundAuthor: Great Britain. Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary Title: Crime Counts: A Review of Data Quality for Offences of the Most Serious Violence: Technical Report. Summary: This report reviews the quality of the Most Serious Violence crime data nationally and compliance with U.K. Home Office Counting Rules and the National Crime Recording Standard. Details: London: Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary Source: Year: 0 Country: United Kingdom URL: Shelf Number: 117312 Keywords: Crime AnalysisViolent Crime |
Author: Tengbeh, Sahr Title: Crima Analysis and Police Station Location in Swaziland: A Case Study in Manzini Summary: This study analyzed the spatio-temporal pattern of crime in the city of Manzini, in Swaziland, for the period of 2004 and determined suitable locations for future police stations. The study concluded that crime prevention strategies would require the intervention of both the police and city planners to be reasonable successful. It also noted that the establishment of accessible police stations would complement the effects of the police in their endeavor to combat crime in Manzini. Details: Stellenbosch, South Africa: University of Stellenbosch, Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, 2006. 80 p. Source: Master's Thesis Year: 2006 Country: Swaziland URL: Shelf Number: 118093 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime PreventionGeographic Information SystemsPolice Stations |
Author: Roman, Caterina Gouvis Title: Community Organizations and Crime: An Examination of the Social-Institutional Process of Neighborhoods Summary: This report examines how local, community-based institutions and organizations are linked to social control and crime, in order to inform community development policy, research, and practices for crime control and public safety. Details: Washington, DC: Urban Institute, Justice Policy Center, 2009. 66p., app. Source: Year: 2009 Country: United States URL: Shelf Number: 117565 Keywords: Community OrganizationsCrime AnalysisCrime Control TheoryNeighborhoods and Crime |
Author: Berk, Richard Title: The Dynamics of Crime Regimes Summary: Crimes have many features, and the mix of those features can change over time and space. In this paper, the authors introduce the concept of a crime regime to provide some theoretical leverage on collections of crime features and how the collection of features can change. Key tools include the use of principal components analysis to determine the dimensions of crime regimes, visualization methods to help reveal the role of time, summary statistics to quantify crime regime patterns, and permutation procedures to examine the role of change. The approach is used to analyze temporal and spatial crime patterns for the City of Los Angeles over a 8 year period. The focus is on the number of violent crimes over time and their potential lethality. Details: Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania, Department of Statistics & Department of Criminology, 2009. 46p. Source: Working Paper Year: 2009 Country: United States URL: Shelf Number: 118397 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime PatternsViolent Crimes (Los Angeles) |
Author: Krause, Andre Title: The Crime Threat Analysis Process - An Assessment Summary: This study investigated the application of the crime threat analysis process at station level within the Nelson Mandela Metro City area with the objective of determining inhibiting factors (constraints) and best practices. Qualitative research methodology was applied and interviews were conducted with crime analysts and specialized investigators/intelligence analysts. The research design can be best described as descriptive - and explorative in nature. The crime threat analysis process embroils the application of various crime analysis techniques and the outcomes thereof intends to have a dual purpose of generating operational crime management in assisting crime prevention initiatives and crime detention efforts, mainly focussing on the criminal activities of group offenders (organized crime related), repeat offenders and serial offenders. During the study it became evident that crime analysts understand and thus apply the crime threat analysis process indifferently, which impeded on the relevancy and the utilization therof as an effective crime management tool. Details: Pretoria: University of South Africa, 2007. 132p. Source: Master's Essay Year: 2007 Country: South Africa URL: Shelf Number: 118756 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime MappingCrime PreventionOrganized Crime |
Author: Broidy, Lisa M. Title: Travel to Violence Summary: This study uses incident-level data from the Albuquerque Police Department along with data from the U.S. Census to explore the characteristics of offenders, incidents, and neighborhoods in Albuquerque, New Mexico to determine what influences travel distances for non-domestic assaults, robberies, and burglaries. Knowledge concerning the geo-spatial distribution of offenders, victims, and incidents is essential to the development of data-driven policing practices. Aspects of community policing, quality-of-life enforcement strategies, and the use of civil injunctions in addressing problematic areas hold implicit assumptions concerning the concentration of criminal participants and incidents. Information concerning the distances that potential offenders travel to crime, as well the characteristics of participants and incidents that influence these distances can inform these strategies and help agencies decide how to best utilize resources. Details: Albuquerque, NM: New Mexico Statistical Analysis Center, Institute for Social Research, University of New Mexico, 2007. 30p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed October 21, 2010 at: http://www.jrsa.org/ibrrc/background-status/New_Mexico/Travel_to_Violence.pdf Year: 2007 Country: United States URL: http://www.jrsa.org/ibrrc/background-status/New_Mexico/Travel_to_Violence.pdf Shelf Number: 109255 Keywords: AssaultsBurglariesCrime AnalysisDistance to CrimeGeographic Distribution of CrimeGeographic StudiesRobberies |
Author: De Tella, Rafael Title: Happiness, Ideology and Crime in Argentine Cities Summary: This paper uses self-reported data on victimization, subjective well being and ideology for a panel of individuals living in six Argentine cities. While no relationship is found between happiness and victimization experiences, a correlation is documented, however, between victimization experience and changes in ideological positions. Specifically, individuals who are the victims of crime are subsequently more likely than non-victims to state that inequality is high in Argentina and that the appropriate measure to reduce crime is to become less punitive (demanding lower penalties for the same crime). Details: Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank, 2009. 44p. Source: Internet Resource: IDB WORKING PAPER SERIES No. IDB-WP-112; Accessed October 23, 2010 at: http://idbdocs.iadb.org/wsdocs/getdocument.aspx?docnum=35004726 Year: 2009 Country: Argentina URL: http://idbdocs.iadb.org/wsdocs/getdocument.aspx?docnum=35004726 Shelf Number: 120059 Keywords: Crime AnalysisInequalityVictimizationVictims of Crime |
Author: Alexander, Maria A. Title: An Overview of Crime in the Neighborhoods Contiguous to the University of Memphis: Strategies and Initiatives Summary: This report was produced in an effort to review the specific crime issues that are occurring in neighborhoods that border the University of Memphis. The research contained in this report is primarily derived from data collected from CompStat (computer statistics) through the Memphis Police Department, interviews with neighborhood association groups within the University District and survey data which were collected and analyzed by the University of Memphis Center for Community Criminology and Research (CCCR). Additionally, universities and campus police departments throughout the United States were queried as to strategies and initiatives that have been employed in similar settings. Details: Memphis, TN: Memphis Shelby Crime Commission 2003. 67p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed October 28, 2010 at: http://cas2.memphis.edu/community/pdfs/UNCrime_2003.pdf Year: 2003 Country: United States URL: http://cas2.memphis.edu/community/pdfs/UNCrime_2003.pdf Shelf Number: 120108 Keywords: Colleges and UniversitiesCrime AnalysisNeighborhoods and Crime |
Author: Sparrow, Malcolm K. Title: Governing Science Summary: This paper argues that the emphasis on using evidence-based practices (EBP) from social science research and methodology to establish operational and program agendas for policing practice only limits and distracts from more relevant and substantive contributions from natural sciences methodology (e.g., pattern recognition); traditionally productive avenues of observation, investigation and inquiry (e.g., crime analysis); and problem-oriented policing as more effective responses to crime in communities. Details: Cambridge, MA: Harvard Kennedy School, Program in Criminal Justice Policy and Management; Washington, DC: U.S. National Institute of Justice, 2011. 32p. Source: Internet Resource: New Perspectives in Policing: Accessed February 2, 2011 at: http://ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/232179.pdf Year: 2011 Country: United States URL: http://ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/232179.pdf Shelf Number: 120671 Keywords: Crime AnalysisPolicingProblem Oriented Policing |
Author: Caplan, Joel M. Title: Risk Terrain RTM Modeling Manual: Theoretical Framework and Technical Steps of Spatial Risk Assessment for Crime Analysis Summary: Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) is an approach to risk assessment that standardizes risk factors to common geographic units over a continuous surface. Separate map layers representing the presence, absence, or intensity of each risk factor at every place throughout a terrain is created in a Geographic Information System (GIS), and then all risk map layers are combined to produce a composite “risk terrain” map with attribute values that account for all risk factors at every location throughout the geography. RTM aids in strategic decision-making and tactical action by showing where conditions are ripe for events to occur in the future. This manual is offered as a primer on risk in the criminal event and demonstrates effective ways to apply RTM to crime analysis and policing operations. It begins with a review of the RTM approach to spatial risk assessment and presents a short overview of the theoretical underpinnings of criminological theory that have addressed the social and environmental factors that contribute to crime patterns, hotspots, and risk terrains. The second part details the technical steps for analysts to take in using ArcGIS software to develop risk terrain maps. The third and final part presents ideas of how RTM works in strategic and tactical decision-making, particularly within the context of the ACTION model for risk-based intelligence-led policing. With this manual, analysts can produce risk terrain maps that give actionable meaning to the relationships that exist between place-based indicators and crime outcomes. Planners can use this approach to develop strategic models to forecast where crime problems are likely to emerge and to engage in steps that might reduce risks of crime occurring in the future. Details: Newark, NJ: Rutgers Center on Public Security, 2010. 122p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed April 4, 2011 at: http://www.rutgerscps.org/rtm/ Year: 2010 Country: United States URL: http://www.rutgerscps.org/rtm/ Shelf Number: 121245 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime MappingGeographic Information SystemsRisk Assessment |
Author: Vellani, Karim H. Title: Crime Analysis for Problem Solving Security Professionals in 25 Small Steps Summary: This manual shows security professionals how to select and implement appropriate countermeasures to reduce the opportunities for the everyday crimes that are the most common threats to assets and targets that security professionals must protect. Drawing on problem-oriented policing and situational crime prevention the manual is essential reading for security professionals, facility managers, risk managers, property managers, and as well for both public and private police who are concerned with everyday crime problems in business settings. Details: Houston, TX: Karim H. Vellani, 2010. 56p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed April 15, 2011 at: http://www.popcenter.org/library/reading/pdfs/crimeanalysis25steps.pdf Year: 2010 Country: United States URL: http://www.popcenter.org/library/reading/pdfs/crimeanalysis25steps.pdf Shelf Number: 121361 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime PreventionPrivate SecurityProblem-Oriented PolicingSituational Crime Prevention |
Author: Burgess, Melissa Title: Understanding Crime Hotspot Maps Summary: The distribution of crime across a region is not random. A number of factors influence where crime occurs, including the physical and social characteristics of the place and the people using the place. Crime mapping can show us where the high crime areas are and help to provide an understanding of the factors that affect the distribution and frequency of crime. This knowledge can help improve crime prevention policies and programs. For example, it can help us to anticipate at-risk places, times and people; direct law enforcement resources; allocate victim services; design the most suitable crime prevention strategies; and so forth. This brief provides a description of how the Bureau’s Local Government Area crime hotspot maps are produced and how they should be interpreted. Details: Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, 2011. 8p. Source: Internet Resource: Issues Paper No. 60: Accessed May 16, 2011 at: http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/lawlink/bocsar/ll_bocsar.nsf/vwFiles/bb60.pdf/$file/bb60.pdf Year: 2011 Country: Australia URL: http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/lawlink/bocsar/ll_bocsar.nsf/vwFiles/bb60.pdf/$file/bb60.pdf Shelf Number: 121722 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime HotspotsCrime MappingHigh Crime Areas |
Author: Winokur. Kristin Parsons Title: Targeting Delinquency Prevention Services to High-Risk Youth and Neighborhoods: An Assessment of the Florida Department of Juvenile Justice Prevention and Victim Services' Geo-Mapping Techniques Summary: The Florida Department of Juvenile Justice (DJJ) is required by statute to administer prevention and intervention services to at-risk youths and their families. At approximately $62 million in fiscal year 2001-02, funding for prevention programs accounts for less than ten percent of the more than $619 million allocated to DJJ annually. In order to make efficient use of limited resources in the face of increasing needs for service, the DJJ Prevention and Victim Services branch (hereafter referred to generally as DJJ) developed a prevention strategy to: Target youth who are at highest risk for engaging in criminal behavior. Locate resources in communities with the greatest risk factors. Employ research-based prevention methods. Prevention program allocation in Florida is therefore a two-pronged approach to identify (a) youth and (b) communities with the greatest risk factors and needs for service. The DJJ relies upon the research literature to inform the process of identifying at-risk youth. Prevention and Victim Services, with the assistance of DJJ research staff, then utilize geo-mapping technology to identify and map neighborhoods where large concentrations of high-risk delinquents reside. These "high-risk" communities are mapped by zip code boundaries. Prevention program providers can then identify the areas that are most in need of services. This targeting approach has been in place for the last three years and the Department has asked that an outside evaluator, The Justice Research Center (JRC), assess its validity. This report presents the findings of the evaluation and covers only contracted general revenue and state grant funded prevention programs. Details: Tallahassee, FL: Justice Research Center and Deptartment of Juvenile Justice, 2004. 28p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed August 15, 2011 at: http://www.thejrc.com/docs/DJJ%20Zip%20Code%20Final%20Report%20PDF.pdf Year: 2004 Country: United States URL: http://www.thejrc.com/docs/DJJ%20Zip%20Code%20Final%20Report%20PDF.pdf Shelf Number: 122385 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime MappingGeographic ProfilingHigh Crime AreasJuvenile Delinquency Prevention (Florida)Juvenile Offenders |
Author: Wade, Cheryl L. Title: The California Law Enforcement Community’s Intelligence-Led Policing Capacity Summary: Hindsight gives the nation much clarity regarding the cause of the failure to prevent the tragic events of 9/11. Calls for reform challenge the intelligence community, and law enforcement in general, to create the collaborative capacity to connect the dots, dare to imagine, and become accustomed to expecting the unexpected. Throughout the various reformation efforts over the last nine years, one central theme endures: the ability to share intelligence across interagency and intergovernmental barriers is imperative. The inextricable link between foreign and domestic intelligence demands that changes be made to smooth the continuum of efforts from public safety, to homeland security, to national security. If the quality of intelligence in this continuum is directly related to the depth and breadth of information available, then the participating agencies must be fully networked. Such a network is one way to transform the unknowingly relevant into potentially actionable intelligence. How else can domestic events be understood in an international context (or vice versa)? Details: Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, 2010. 103p. Source: Internet Resource: Thesis: Accessed September 19, 2011 at: http://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=11524 Year: 2010 Country: United States URL: http://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=11524 Shelf Number: 122782 Keywords: Community-Oriented PolicingCrime AnalysisCriminal IntelligenceIntelligence AnalysisIntelligence-Led Policing |
Author: Willis, Dale Title: Place and Neighborhood Crime: Examining the Relationship between Schools, Churches, and Alcohol Related Establishments and Crime Summary: The objective of this research is to determine the degree to which neighborhood crime patterns are influenced by the spatial distribution of three types of places: schools, alcohol establishments, and churches. A substantial body of research has examined the relationship between places and crime. Empirically, this research indicates that there is more crime at certain types of places than at others (Sherman, Gartin, and Buerger, 1989; Spelmen, 1995; Block and Block, 1995). The criminological literature also provides several potential theoretical explanations for these patterns. The routine activity perspective (Cohen and Felson, 1979) argues that crime occurs when motivated offenders converge with potential victims in unguarded areas. Places that promote this convergence are expected to have elevated crime rates, while places that prevent or reduce this convergence are expected to have lower crime rates. The social disorganization perspective (Shaw and McKay, 1942; Bursik, 1988; Krivo and Peterson, 1996) argues that communities with more collective efficacy (in the form of internal social networks and access to external resources and values) are likely to have less crime, while communities lacking in efficacy are likely to have more crime. Places that promote the formation of positive social ties and grant the community access to external resources are expected to reduce crime, while places that inhibit positive social ties and separate the community from external resources are likely to increase crime. Much of the literature on place and crime has focused on the influence of bars on neighborhood crime rates, with a substantial body of research indicating that bars are associated with elevated crime rates (Roncek and Bell, 1981; Roncek and Pravatiner, 1989; Sherman, Gartin, and Buerger, 1989; Roncek and Maier, 1991; Block and Block, 1995). Sherman, Gartin, and Buerger (1989), for example, found that bars can account for upwards of 50% of police service calls in a given area. Here we examine the relationship not only between bars and crime rates, but other types of liquor establishments as well (e.g., liquor stores and restaurants that serve alcohol). In addition to the literature that characterizes bars as hot spots for crime, a smaller, yet growing, body of literature indicates that the presence of schools (Roncek and Lobosco, 1983; Roncek and Faggiani, 1985; Roman, 2004; Kautt and Roncek, 2007, Broidy, Willits, and Denman, 2009, Murray and Swatt, 2010) is also associated with neighborhood crime. The most recent of this research suggests that while high schools are associated with increased crime at the neighborhood level, elementary schools may have a protective influence. Research on churches and crime is limited relative to research focused on schools and bars, but suggests that churches may help protect neighborhoods from crime (Lee, 2006; Lee 2008; Lee 2010). Furthermore, there are theoretical reasons to suspect that churches, like schools and liquor establishments, may be an important type of place to consider when examining crime at the neighborhood level. The current research contributes to a criminological understanding of place and crime by examining whether and how all three location types operate to influence crime rates both independently and relative to one another. Details: Albuquerque, NM: New Mexico Statistical Analysis Center, 2011. 46p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed September 28, 2011 at: nmsac.unm.edu/ Year: 2011 Country: United States URL: Shelf Number: 122927 Keywords: Alcohol Related Crime, DisorderChurchesCommunities and CrimeCrime AnalysisCrime Hot-SpotsCrime PatternsNeighborhoods and CrimeSchools |
Author: Broidy, Lisa Title: Schools and Neighborhood Crime Summary: The objective of this research is to determine the degree to which neighborhood crime patterns are influenced by the location, level, and quality of neighborhood schools. A small body of research has investigated the link between schools and neighborhood crime (Roncek and Lobosco, 1983; Roncek and Faggiani, 1985; Roman, 2004; Kautt and Roncek, 2007). This body of research, as a whole, suggests that schools generate crime at the neighborhood level. Because neighborhood boundaries are difficult to identify, neighborhood level research generally defines neighborhoods using geographic boundaries defined by the U.S. Census Bureau (Sampson, Morenoff, and Gannon-Rowley, 2002). Research examining schools and crime has been uniformly conducted at smallest geographic unit defined by the U.S. Census Bureau: the block. The U.S. Census Bureau, however, releases data on a wider range of social indicators at larger levels of analysis (like the block group and tract). Consequently, previous research has been unable to control for a wide array of social-structural factors when examining the relationship between schools and neighborhood crime. Therefore, previous research on schools and crime cannot definitively demonstrate that schools are related to crime above and beyond factors like structural disadvantage, residential mobility, and family disruption. In addition to limited controls for key structural determinants of crime, most studies examining schools and neighborhood crime focus exclusively on high schools. This is also problematic, as some research suggests that crime and victimization may be similarly elevated near elementary and middle schools (Nolin, Davies, and Chandler, 1996; Wilcox et al., 2005). Interestingly, the single neighborhood study (Kautt and Roncek, 2007) that has considered elementary, middle, and high schools together found that neighborhoods with elementary schools have more burglaries than those without elementary schools. The study, however, showed no such relationship when comparing neighborhoods with and without middle schools or high schools. At the very least, this work suggests that research examining the relationship between schools and crime rates should not focus exclusively on the effect of high schools. Moreover, no previous studies on schools and neighborhood crime have investigated the role of school quality. The social disorganization perspective argues that strong social institutions can prevent crime (Krivo and Peterson, 1996), suggesting that high quality schools may help prevent crime, while lower quality schools might foster crime. In this study, we use incident-crime data from Albuquerque, New Mexico, to address some of the limitations of the current research on schools and crime at the neighborhood level. Specifically, we assess the influence of the presence and quality of elementary, middle and high schools on neighborhood crime rates, net of key structural correlates of crime. First, we utilize the block group as our level of analysis. This allows us to investigate the effects of schools, while controlling for a wider array of variables than previous studies. By controlling for concepts like structural disadvantage, residential mobility, and family disruption, we can be more certain that any significant relationship between schools and neighborhood crime is reflective of school effects and not of structural conditions. We also disaggregate our analysis by schools and by type of crime. By including elementary, middle, and high schools in our analysis, we address the possibility that different levels of schools are related to neighborhood crime in different ways. Moreover, we consider the possibility that various characteristics of schools, including school quality and school size, moderate the relationship between school presence and neighborhood crime. And finally, we examine the relationship between schools and crime by time of day, in order to address the possibility that the effect of schools on crime may be constrained to the hours during which youth are likely to be in or around the school area. In each of these analyses, we examine the relationship between schools and a variety of different types of crime. In sum, the current research examines the following questions: Are schools related to neighborhood crime? Does this relationship vary based on crime type, school type, school quality, and time of day? This report is organized into five chapters. The second chapter presents a literature review of the research on this topic. In addition to reviewing previous research on schools and crime, this chapter also frames the topic in terms of relevant sociological theory. The third chapter describes the data and methodologies that we used to investigate the relationship between schools and crime. The fourth chapter presents the results of our research. The fifth and final chapter discusses these results, presents empirical and theoretical conclusions, and addresses directions for future research. Details: Report prepared for the Justice Research Statistics Association, 2008(?). 47p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed September 28, 2011 at: http://www.jrsa.org/ibrrc/background-status/New_Mexico/Schools_Crime.pdf Year: 2008 Country: United States URL: http://www.jrsa.org/ibrrc/background-status/New_Mexico/Schools_Crime.pdf Shelf Number: 122932 Keywords: Crime AnalysisGeographic StudiesNeighborhoods and CrimeSchools and Crime |
Author: Groff, Elizabeth Title: Identifying and Measuring the Effects of Information Technologies on Law Enforcement Agencies Summary: This guide by the Institute for Law and Justice provides information that will help police departments measure the effects of information technologies to support community policing activities. The guide is based on the results of an assessment of the COPS Office’s 2002 Making Officer Redeployment Effective (MORE) grantees; however, the results apply to any agency that is considering or has recently made a technology purchase. The guide is relevant to departments of all sizes and covers a variety of applications — automated field reporting systems, computer aided dispatch, records management systems, and others. The guide focuses on the three E’s–efficiency, effectiveness, and enabling–which identify the different ways the technology may affect agencies. The intent is to provide practical measures based on these three E’s for how information technologies contribute to achieving department goals and can be used to examine the merits of such expenditures. Details: Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Community Oriented Policing Services, 2008. 86p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed October 4, 2011 at: http://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e08084156-IT.pdf Year: 2008 Country: United States URL: http://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e08084156-IT.pdf Shelf Number: 113061 Keywords: Community-Oriented PolicingComputersCrime AnalysisInformation Technology |
Author: Weisburd, David Title: Understanding Developmental Crime Trajectories at Places: Social Disorganization and Opportunity Perspectives at Micro Units of Geography Summary: Individuals and communities have traditionally been the focus of criminological research, but recently criminologists have begun to explore the importance of “micro” places (e.g. addresses, street segments, and clusters of street segments) in understanding and controlling crime. Recent research provides strong evidence that crime is strongly clustered at hot spots and that there are important developmental trends of crime at place, but little is known about the geographic distribution of these patterns or the specific correlates of crime at this micro level of geography. We report here on a large empirical study that sought to address these gaps in our knowledge of the “criminology of place.” Linking 16 years of official crime data on street segments (a street block between two intersections) in Seattle, Washington to a series of data sets examining social and physical characteristics of micro places over time, we examine not only the geography of developmental patterns of crime at place but also the specific factors that are related to different trajectories of crime. We use two key criminological perspectives, social disorganization theories and opportunity theories, to inform our identification of risk factors in our study and then contrast the impacts of these perspectives in the context of multivariate statistical models. Our first major research question concerns whether social disorganization and opportunity measures vary across micro units of geography, and whether they are clustered, like crime, into “hot spots.” Study variables reflecting social disorganization include property value, housing assistance, race, voting behavior, unsupervised teens, physical disorder, and urbanization. Measures representing opportunity theories include the location of public facilities, street lighting, public transportation, street networks, land use, and business sales. We find strong clustering of such traits into social disorganization and opportunity “hot spots,” as well as significant spatial heterogeneity. We use group-based trajectory modeling to identify eight broad developmental patterns across street segments in Seattle. Our findings in this regard follow an earlier NIJ study that identified distinct developmental trends (e.g. high increasing and high decreasing patterns) while noting the overall stability of crime trends for the majority of street segments in Seattle. We go beyond the prior study by carefully examining the geography of the developmental crime patterns observed. We find evidence of strong heterogeneity of trajectory patterns at street segments with, for example, the presence of chronic trajectory street segments throughout the city. There is also strong street to street variability in crime patterns, though there is some clustering of trajectory patterns in specific areas. Our findings suggest that area trends influence micro level trends (suggesting the relevance of community level theories of crime). Nonetheless, they also show that the bulk of variability at the micro place level is not explained by trends at larger geographic levels. In identifying risk factors related to developmental trajectories, we find confirmation of both social disorganization and opportunity theories. Overall, street segments evidencing higher social disorganization are also found to have higher levels of crime. For many social disorganization measures increasing trends of social disorganization over time were associated with increasing trajectory patterns of crime. Similarly, in the case of opportunity measures related to motivated offenders, suitable crime targets, and their accessibility, we find that greater opportunities for crime are found at street segments in higher rate trajectory patterns. Finally, we use multinomial logistic regression to simultaneously examine opportunity and social disorganization factors and their influence on trajectory patterns. The most important finding here is that both perspectives have considerable salience in understanding crime at place, and together they allow us to develop a very strong level of prediction of crime. Our work suggests it is time to consider an approach to the crime problem that begins not with the people who commit crime but with the micro places where crimes are committed. This is not the geographic units of communities or police beats that have generally been the focus of crime prevention, but it is a unit of analysis that is key to understanding crime and its development. Details: Final report to the U.S. National Institute of Justice, 2009. 379p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed October 5, 2011 at: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/236057.pdf Year: 2009 Country: United States URL: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/236057.pdf Shelf Number: 122991 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime Hot SpotsCrime LocationsCrime MappingGeographic StudiesHigh Crime Areas |
Author: Weisburd, David L. Title: Hot Spots of Juvenile Crime: Findings From Seattle Summary: This bulletin summarizes the results of a study that reviewed the distribution of juvenile crime in Seattle. The researchers geographically mapped the crime incidents in which a juvenile was arrested to identify the rates and hot spots of juvenile crime in the city. Key findings include the following: • Fifty percent of all juvenile crime incidents occurred at less than 1 percent of street segments—an area that includes the addresses on both sides of a street between two intersections. All juvenile crime incidents occurred at less than 5 percent of street segments. • Juvenile crime was concentrated in public and commercial areas where youth gather—schools, youth centers, shops, malls, and restaurants—rather than residential areas.• Crime rates often vary from one street segment to the next, suggesting that police efforts targeting these hot spots can reduce crime. • Many juvenile crime hot spots coincide with areas where youth congregate, which indicates that closer supervision of these public places, in the form of place managers or patrols, may help lower juvenile crime rates in those areas. Details: Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, 2011. 15p. Source: Internet Resource: Juvenile Justice Bulletin: Accessed October 18, 2011 at: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/ojjdp/231575.pdf Year: 2011 Country: United States URL: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/ojjdp/231575.pdf Shelf Number: 123048 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime Hot SpotsGeographic StudiesHigh Crime AreasJuvenile CrimeJuvenile Offenders (Seattle) |
Author: Malleson, Nick Title: Evaluating an Agent-Based Model of Burglary Summary: An essential part of any modelling research is to evaluate how a model performs. This paper will outline the process of evaluating a new agent-based model that is being developed to predict rates of residential burglary. The model contains a highly detailed environment which is representative of Leeds, UK. Following Castle and Crooks (2006), the process of evaluating the model will be segregated into three distinct activities: verification, calibration and validation. Verification refers to the process of establishing whether or not the model has been built correctly. This can be an extremely difficult process with complex models. Here, verification is accomplished by “plugging-in” different types of virtual environment which enables the researcher to limit environmental complexity and thus isolate the part of the model that is being tested. Following verification, calibration is the process of configuring the model parameters so that the output match some field conditions. However, this is a non-trivial task with models that are inherently spatial as it must be decided how to compare the two data sets. To this end, the paper will explore a number of spatial techniques and statistics that can be used to compare spatial data before documenting the process of calibrating the model. After calibration, it is necessary to ensure that the model has not been over-fitted to the calibration data (a process termed validation). Here, this is accomplished by running the model using environmental data from a different time period and comparing the results to the corresponding crime data. Details: Leeds, UK: School of Geography, University of Leeds, 2010. 84p. Source: Internet Resource: Working Paper 10/1: Accessed January 20, 2012 at: http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/fileadmin/downloads/school/research/wpapers/10_1.pdf Year: 2010 Country: United Kingdom URL: http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/fileadmin/downloads/school/research/wpapers/10_1.pdf Shelf Number: 123684 Keywords: Crime AnalysisGeographic StudiesGeographical Information Systems (GIS)Residential BurglarySpatial Analysis |
Author: Malleson, Nick Title: Simulating Burglary with an Agent-Based Model Summary: Understanding the processes behind crime is an important research area in criminology, which has major implications for both improving policies and developing effective crime prevention strategies (Brantingham and Brantingham, 2004; Groff, 2007a). In order to test modern opportunity theories it is essential to be able model the complex, dynamic interactions of the individuals involved in each crime event. However, studies to date are limited in their ability to provide consistent support for these theories due to an inability to model complex micro-level interactions (Groff, 2007a). Agent-based modelling (ABM) represents a shift in the social sciences towards the use of models that work at the level of the individual. Using the ABM paradigm, human agents can be implemented with realistic human behaviour who interact with each other and their environment to create a dynamic system which mimics a real scenario. This paper presents the development and application of an ABM for simulating the occurrence of residential burglary at an individual level. Experiments are conducted investigate the effectiveness of burglary reduction strategies and criminology theories. The model is able to demonstrate that a commonly used crime-reduction initiative is ineffective at removing crime hotspots. Details: Leeds, UK: School of Geography, University of Leeds, 2009. 45p. Source: Internet Resource: Working Paper 09/3: Accessed January 20, 2012 at: http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/fileadmin/downloads/school/research/wpapers/09-03.pdf Year: 2009 Country: United Kingdom URL: http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/fileadmin/downloads/school/research/wpapers/09-03.pdf Shelf Number: 123689 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime PreventionGeographic StudiesProperty CrimesResidential Burglary (Leeds) |
Author: Taylor, Bruce Title: The Integration of Crime Analysis Into Patrol Work: A Guidebook Summary: The Integration of Crime Analysis Into Patrol Work: A Guidebook explores the data and analysis needs of patrol officers and the importance of analysis throughout the police organization. This guidebook explores the current state of the field as it relates to the use of crime analysis and analytical products, the needs of the police organization, and best practices in crime analysis and data collection as they relate to patrol work. The guidebook also illustrates the work of a select group of agencies that successfully integrated crime analysis into patrol services. Helpful examples of crime analysis products are provided. The purpose of this document is to offer guidance to law enforcement agencies on integrating data collection and crime analysis into regular patrol work within a community policing context. Details: Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Community Oriented Policing Services, 2011. 64p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed on February 3, 2012 at http://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e061120376_Integrating-Crime-Analysis-508.pdf Year: 2011 Country: United States URL: http://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e061120376_Integrating-Crime-Analysis-508.pdf Shelf Number: 123926 Keywords: Community Oriented PolicingCrime AnalysisPolice Patrol |
Author: Johnson, Jennifer A. Title: Social network analysis in an operational environment: Defining the utility of a network approach for crime analysis using the Richmond City Police Department as a case study Summary: Increased awareness of network-based social action (Castells, 2009), including criminal action, necessitates the incorporation of network-based analyses in the work of the precinct crime analyst. Social network analysis is a social science methodology that can provide crime analysts with a set of quantitative metrics and robust visual displays, through which they can quickly discover, analyze and visualize network-based criminal action with the goal of developing rigorous interdiction strategies. Using ‘real world’ data provided by the Richmond City Police Department, a large urban metropolitan police department located in the United States in Richmond, Virginia, we show how social network analysis can provide a common language through which crime analysts and police detectives can effectively work to quickly develop interdiction strategies in response to criminal activities that afflict local law enforcement agencies. Through both a case study and use of SNA in actual criminal cases, we show how a network approach can assist police in understanding complex behavioral motivations of offenders, strategically hot-spotting people of interest and developing stronger inter-jurisdictional working relationships. Details: Geneva, Switzerland: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces, 2011. 23p. Source: International Police Executive Symposium Working Paper No. 39: Internet Resource: Accessed February 4, 2012 at http://www.dcaf.ch/content/download/55532/838406/file/WPS39.pdf Year: 2011 Country: United States URL: http://www.dcaf.ch/content/download/55532/838406/file/WPS39.pdf Shelf Number: 123959 Keywords: Crime AnalysisPolice Investigation (Virginia)Social Networks, Analysis |
Author: Lum, Cynthia Title: Translating Police Research into Practice Summary: Eleven years ago, in one of the first Ideas in American Policing lectures, Lawrence Sherman advocated for evidence-based policing, that is, “. . . police practices should be based on scientific evidence about what works best” (1998, 2). Like other police researchers and innovative police practitioners at the time, Sherman believed that information generated from systematic or scientific research, as well as rigorous in-house crime analysis, should be regularly used by the police to make both strategic and tactical decisions. The idea of evidence-based policing seemed logical and advantageous. Why wouldn’t police tactics be based on what we know are effective strategies that reduce or prevent crime? A number of benefits could be reaped from such a rational approach. Strategies and tactics that are generated from information and based in scientific knowledge about effectiveness are more likely to reduce crime when they are employed. Similarly, if interventions have been shown to have harmful effects, police policies might explicitly discourage their deployment. Evidence-based policing also seems more justifiable in supporting police practices than other, much less scientific methods, such as best-guessing, emotional hunches, or anecdotal reflections on single cases. In turn, information-based decision making can provide legitimacy, transparency, and structure to police-citizen communications and interactions, all of which are important requirements for effective policing in modern democracies. Perhaps less obvious but equally important benefits could include advancing police information and management systems that improve efficiency. Evidence-based approaches rely on the consistent and speedy collection, management, analysis, recording, and turnaround of crime data. This reliance can force improvements in police information technology systems, which, in turn, have the potential of strengthening and making more tangible accountability systems that facilitate managerial practices, of which information is a central component. These include innovations such as Compstat, problem-oriented policing, and intelligence-led policing (see Ratcliffe 2008). Such a system seems more promising than what police leaders have previously relied upon to establish accountability—amorphous cultural norms of quasi-military hierarchy or adherence to a reactive standard operating procedures manual. Evidence-based policing could also have a broader impact on transforming cultural forces that strongly influence a reactive approach to police operations, which oftentimes paralyzes crime prevention efforts and change. Although its conceptualization and implementation seem scientific or academic, evidence-based policing could increase the motivation of patrol officers and supervisors in their daily activities. Reducing crime by using strategies more likely to be effective can reduce workload and make efforts more rational. Information-based approaches can also be problem oriented and require a team effort, giving further meaning, logic, and motivation to everyday routines. Evidence-based policing requires police to look outward for information as well, opening officers and command staff to different ideas and worldviews, and providing new challenges, interactions, and relationships that could make any workplace more interesting. Police culture has generally resisted change and external influence (O’Neill, Marks, and Singh 2008), and an evidence-based paradigm might aid in mollifying this resistance. Thus, at least in theory, evidence-based policing holds much promise. Indeed, by the time of Sherman’s Ideas lecture, a number of innovations that reflected its principles had already been implemented or were being considered (see generally, Weisburd and Braga 2006). Examples include the diffusion of crime analysis and computerized mapping in medium to larger police agencies (Weisburd and Lum 2005); the acceptance and use of some principles of Compstat by a number of agencies (Weisburd, Mastrofski, McNally, Greenspan, and Willis 2003; Willis, Mastrofski, and Weisburd 2003; Willis, Mastrofski, and Weisburd 2007); and at least an interest and sporadic efforts in conducting problem-oriented policing and hot-spot patrol. Additionally, by the time of Sherman’s lecture, Sherman, Weisburd, Mazerolle, and others had already evaluated hot-spot patrol using randomized controlled experiments (see Sherman and Rogan 1995a, 1995b; Sherman and Weisburd 1995; Weisburd and Green 1995), showing its clear advantage over existing methods of random, preventive, beat-based, reactive patrol (a conclusion recently reached by a 2004 National Research Council report). More than policing paradigms of the past, evidence-based policing and its associated tactics and tools have shown the promise of both intuitive appeal and scientific credibility. Details: Washington, DC: Police Foundation, 2009. 16p. Source: Ideas in American Policing, No. 11: Internet Resource: Accesed February 14, 2012 at http://www.policefoundation.org/pdf/Ideas_Lum.pdf Year: 2009 Country: United States URL: http://www.policefoundation.org/pdf/Ideas_Lum.pdf Shelf Number: 124142 Keywords: Crime AnalysisEvidence-Based PracticesPolice OperationsPolicing |
Author: Smith, Laura M. Title: Adaptation of an Animal Territory Model to Street Gang Spatial Patterns in Los Angeles Summary: Territorial animals and street gangs exhibit similar behavioral characteristics. Both organize themselves around a home base and mark their territories to distinguish claimed regions. Moorcroft et al. model the formation of territories and spatial distributions of coyote packs and their markings in [24]. We modify this approach to simulate gang dynamics in the Hollenbeck policing division of eastern Los Angeles. We incorporate important geographical features from the region that would inhibit movement, such as rivers and freeways. From the gang and marking densities created by this method, we create a rivalry network from overlapping territories and compare the graph to both the observed network and those constructed through other methods. Data on the locations of where gang members have been observed is then used to analyze the densities created by the model. Details: Unpublished Paper, 2012. 22p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed March 10, 2012 at Year: 2012 Country: United States URL: Shelf Number: 124432 Keywords: Crime AnalysisGangs (Los Angeles)Geographic StudiesSpatial Analysis |
Author: Eck, John E. Title: Situational Crime Prevention at Specific Locations in Community Context: Place and Neighborhood Effects Summary: This final report to the National Institute of Justice describes the methods, data, findings and implications of a study of the situational and contextual influences on violence in bars and apartment. The study was conducted in Cincinnati, Ohio. Interviews of managers and observations of sites were made for 199 bars. For apartment complexes owners were interviewed for 307 and observations were made at 994. Using the data from these sources, police records, county land parcel data, and census information, the study examined why some bars and apartments had more violent crime than others. For both types of places, violent crime is highly skewed: a few places have most of the violent incidents but most bars and most apartment complexes have no violence or very little violence. In both bars and apartment complexes, neighborhood context seems to be loosely coupled with violence. Bars were clustered in a few neighborhoods, but violent and non-violent bars were near each other. Neighborhood context influenced the relationship between situational variables and violence in apartment complexes, but not consistently. Place specific features are also important. In bars, minimum drink price and whether the bar was attracting the ideal customer were negatively associated with violence while security was positively associated with violence. In apartment complexes a host of site specific features and management practices were associated with violence, including location, physical characteristics, incivilities, and management practices. These associations sometimes depended on neighborhood disadvantage or violence. To account for these findings, the report describes a hypothetical general model of place management. The report concludes with policy and research implications. Details: Cincinnati: University of Cincinnati, 2010. 190p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed July 9, 2012 at: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/229364.pdf Year: 2010 Country: United States URL: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/229364.pdf Shelf Number: 118077 Keywords: Alcohol Related Crime and DisorderApartment Complexes and CrimeCrime AnalysisHot SpotsNeighborhoods and CrimeSituational Crime Prevention (Cincinnati) |
Author: Hibdon, Julie A. Title: What's Hot and What's Not: The Effects of Individual Factors on the Identification of Hot and Cool Crime Spots Summary: Theoretical arguments suggest that crime escalates in disadvantaged and disorderly areas because these areas contain cues of danger and safety that signal individuals to stay away, thus reducing effective guardianship, a powerful protective factor against crime. Yet, there is very little knowledge on how perceptions of crime places translate into avoidance or withdrawal behaviors. Moreover, there is limited knowledge of how individual characteristics inform and influence these perceptions. The purpose of this study is twofold. First, this study seeks to understand the accuracy with which people can identify crime hot spots and cool spots within their community. Second, this study will examine the influence of individual predictors on respondents. abilities to identify crime and non-crime locations within the two study neighborhoods. Specifically, individual level predictors of individual demographics, perceptions of crime and disorder, and neighborhood familiarity and tenure are tested. Study measures are derived using two data sources including cognitive maps administered to active community members (N=168) through the Communities Problems and Issues Survey (CPIS) and calls for service to the Trinidad and Tobago Emergency Response System (E-999). Accuracy and the influence of individual predictors are tested using a mix of analytic techniques including descriptive diagnostics, t-tests, zero-inflated count regression analysis and ordinal logistic regression. Overall, the study supports past perception of crime research by determining that respondents are not accurate in identifying crime hot spots. Additionally, when testing the individual predictors that influence accuracy, two factors, gender and neighborhood familiarity, have a strong influence on whether respondents include crime hot spots in the areas they consider unsafe or dangerous. The study concludes with a discussion of the study's implications for both practice and research. Details: Fairfax, VA: George Mason University, 2011. 221p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed July 23, 2012 at: Gottfredson Library of Criminal Justice Year: 2011 Country: Trinidad and Tobago URL: Shelf Number: 125716 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime and PlaceCrime Hot Spots (Trinidad and Tobago)Crime Patterns |
Author: U.S. Department of Justice. Bureau of Justice Assistance Title: Reducing Crime Through Intelligence-Led Policing Summary: Through the Targeting Violent Crime Initiative, the Bureau of Justice Assistance (BJA), Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice, has identified numerous law enforcement agencies throughout the United States that have experienced tremendous success in combating complex crime problems plaguing their communities. A cornerstone of these agencies‟ efforts appears to be the incorporation of intelligence-led policing, along with other initiatives, to address their crime problems. To better understand the role of ILP in these successes, BJA requested a study of selected programs that represent a broad spectrum of agencies that are geographically diverse and varied in agency size and available resources. The purpose of the study was to identify commonalities, challenges, and best practices that may be replicated in other jurisdictions. The study was composed of case studies of selected agencies and involved delving into the nature and scope of the crime problems targeted, examining institutional changes made to address those crime problems, and identifying ongoing or newly implemented complementary efforts. Many, but not all, agencies selected for the study were grantees of the BJA Targeting Violent Crime Initiative. A protocol was developed to collect program information, and a team visited ten agencies to review data and policies and conduct interviews. Although the agencies exhibited differing operational practices and organizational styles, it quickly became apparent that they shared certain commonalities that were critical to their success. These include: Command commitment Problem clarity Active collaboration Effective intelligence Information sharing Clearly defined goals Results-oriented tactics and strategies Holistic investigations Officer accountability Continuous assessment The case studies in this report validate the fact that implementing ILP substantially enhanced the ability of these high-performing agencies to achieve success. ILP was implemented in varying degrees within these agencies and was often complemented by other policing practices, such as community policing, problem solving, and CompStat based on robust data collection and analysis. The success of these programs also reflects BJA‟s principles of: Emphasizing local control Building relationships in the field Developing collaborations and partnerships Promoting capacity building through planning Encouraging innovation. Details: Washington, DC: BJA, 2012. 52p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed August 7, 2012 at: https://www.bja.gov/Publications/ReducingCrimeThroughILP.pdf Year: 2012 Country: United States URL: https://www.bja.gov/Publications/ReducingCrimeThroughILP.pdf Shelf Number: 125904 Keywords: Crime AnalysisIntellence-Led Policing (U.S.)Intelligence AnalysisProblem-Oriented PolicingViolent Crime |
Author: Jones, Greg Title: Crime Analysis Case Studies Summary: This volume presents a collection of crime analysis case studies that examines practical yet unique crime and disorder problems. These case studies are written by crime analysts and practitioners to demonstrate the processes, tools, and research crime analysts use to understand as well as to find viable, comprehensive solutions to crime and disorder problems. Each case study draws upon an analyst’s experience, training, and basic problem-solving skills; however, several draw upon the problem-analysis process as well. Problem analysis is an important part of the Scanning, Analysis, Response and Assessment (SARA) process and has been a weakness of problem-solving efforts historically. It requires an in-depth examination of the what, when, how, who, and,most important, the why. This examination requires innovation, which may include development of additional tools or multilateral approaches to triangulate appropriate methods or analyses that should be conducted. Each case study follows a uniform format using SARA, which enables a systematic review of a problem to facilitate well-developed, targeted response(s). The scanning phase involves identifying the problem initially as well as defining that problem in its entirety. Analysis refers to an in-depth exploration of the problem and the examination of its underlying causes. The response phase entails implementation of a well-developed strategy that is tailored according to the results of the analysis phase. The assessment phase requires ongoing monitoring, review, and evaluation of the responses to ensure that goals and objectives are met. Sometimes, especially when dealing with a complex problem, an agency may have to conduct numerous repetitions of the scan and analysis phases before reaching the response phase. The candid descriptions, and personal insights, provided in each case study demonstrate the innovation and diligence of each analyst and practitioner as they journeyed through the SARA process. Also included are maps, images, graphs, and/or tables that were used to help them understand the problem, targeted responses, and evaluate the impact of their responses. Details: Washington, DC: Police Foundation and U.S. Department of Justice, office of Community Oriented Policing Services, 2012. 81p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed August 10, 2012 at: http://www.policefoundation.org/pdf/CrimeAnalysisCaseStudies.pdf Year: 2012 Country: United States URL: http://www.policefoundation.org/pdf/CrimeAnalysisCaseStudies.pdf Shelf Number: 125964 Keywords: Crime AnalysisProblem-AnalysisProblem-Oriented Policing |
Author: Stoner, Sarah Title: Current Global Trends in the Illegal Trade of Tigers Summary: This is a presentation detailing the crime statistics on the illegal international trade of tigers and material from tigers, crime statistics, hotspot analysis and other information. Details: New Delhi, India: World Wide Fund (WWF) & Global Tiger Initiative, 2012. 20p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed August 22, 2012 at http://www.globaltigerinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/TRAFFIC_Tiger_Trade_Analysis.pdf Year: 2012 Country: International URL: http://www.globaltigerinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/TRAFFIC_Tiger_Trade_Analysis.pdf Shelf Number: 126098 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime HotspotsCrime StatisticsIllegal Wildlife TradeOffenses Against the EnvironmentOrganized CrimeTigersWildlife Crime |
Author: Des Forges, Michaela Title: Marking Space and Making Place: Geographies and Graffiti in Wellington, New Zealand Summary: Contemporary graffiti dates from the 1960s when hip-hop style graffiti grew in popularity amongst youth in Philadelphia and New York. It has since spread throughout the world and its various forms and styles are considered both art and vandalism. In Aotearoa New Zealand, graffiti is seen in most urban areas and is regarded as a major problem for local authorities. Despite this, research concerning graffiti in New Zealand is sparse. This research contributes to emerging work on graffiti in Wellington and New Zealand. It aims to provide an insight into the geographies of graffiti in Wellington by exploring the visual, spatial, and temporal aspects of graffiti, as well as the social dynamics informing its production and distribution. Using this information I investigate parallels between what is happening locally and what has been documented in international research. To carry out the research aims, I employed qualitative observations of selected sites around the city over time and used photographs to interpret and document graffiti. I also carried out semi-structured interviews with some graffitists, in addition to people involved in city safety and efforts to stop graffiti. In framing the research I specifically draw from critical geography writing on discourse, power, resistance, place, and space which are particularly salient in regards to graffiti. The research documents similarities with international research in regards to the motivations, rules, and visual, temporal, and spatial aspects. However, Wellington graffitists interact with, and utilise, the city’s space in unique and multifaceted ways which reflect and exhibit localised differences worthy of consideration internationally. For instance, graffitists use, view, and read the urban environment in ways that result in them having an intimacy with the urban environment. Additionally, graffitists think about where they place their graffiti with regards to property, location, intended audiences, and observance to subculture rules. Details: Wellington, New Zealand: School of Geography, Environment & Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, 2011. 139p. Source: Masters Thesis: Internet Resource: Accessed September 16, 2012 at http://researcharchive.vuw.ac.nz/bitstream/handle/10063/2021/thesis.pdf?sequence=2 Year: 2011 Country: New Zealand URL: http://researcharchive.vuw.ac.nz/bitstream/handle/10063/2021/thesis.pdf?sequence=2 Shelf Number: 126349 Keywords: Crime AnalysisGeographic Distribution of CrimeGeographic StudiesGraffiti (New Zealand) |
Author: Levinthal, Jodi Title: The Community Context of Animal and Human Maltreatment: Is there a Relationship between Animal Maltreatment and Human Maltreatment: Does Neighborhood Context Matter? Summary: The purpose of the study is to explore the influence of demographic and neighborhood factors on the phenomenon of animal maltreatment in an urban setting as well as the association of animal maltreatment with human maltreatment. Using a unique dataset of animal maltreatment from the Pennsylvania Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals, the distribution and prevalence of animal neglect, abuse, and dog fighting in Philadelphia were mapped with Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Statistical analysis was employed to examine the relationship between animal maltreatment and neighborhood factors, domestic violence, and child maltreatment. The low correlation between animal abuse and neighborhood factors in this study suggests that animal abuse may be better explained as an individual phenomenon than a behavior that is a function of neighborhoods. However, animal neglect does correlate with demographic, cultural, and structural aspects of block groups, suggesting social disorganization may lead to animal neglect. This study also suggests that dog fighting is a crime of opportunity, as dog fighting correlates with indicators of abandoned properties. Finally, this study is unable to demonstrate a community link between animal maltreatment and child maltreatment, which does not preclude the link among individuals. The findings suggest caution in policies and advocacy campaigns that link human and animal violence in all arenas. Details: Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania, 2010. 115p. Source: Publicly accessible Penn Dissertations, Paper 274: Internet Resource: Accessed September 20, 2012 at http://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations/274/ Year: 2010 Country: United States URL: http://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations/274/ Shelf Number: 126375 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCruelty to AnimalsGeographic Distribution of CrimeGeographic StudiesNeighborhoods and CrimeViolence |
Author: Coscia, Michele Title: How and Where Do Criminals Operate? Using Google to track Mexican Drug Trafficking Organizations Summary: We develop a tool that uses Web content to obtain quantitative information about the mobility and modus operandi of criminal groups, information that would otherwise require the operation of large scale, expensive intelligence exercises to be obtained. Exploiting indexed reliable sources such as online newspapers and blogs, we use unambiguous query terms and Google's search engine to identify the areas of operation of criminal organizations, and to extract information about the particularities of their mobility patters. We apply our tool to Mexican criminal organizations to identify their market strategies, their preferred areas of operation, and the way in which these have evolved over the last two decades. By extracting this knowledge, we provide crucial information for academics and policy makers increasingly interested in organized crime. Our findings provide evidence that criminal organizations are more strategic and operate in more differentiated ways than current academic literature had suggested. Details: Cambridge, MA: Department of Government, Harvard University, 2012. 25p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed October 7, 2012 at http://www.gov.harvard.edu/files/CosciaRios_GoogleForCriminals.pdf Year: 2012 Country: Mexico URL: http://www.gov.harvard.edu/files/CosciaRios_GoogleForCriminals.pdf Shelf Number: 126637 Keywords: ComputersCrime AnalysisDrug Trafficking (Mexico)Information TechnologyOrganized Crime |
Author: Ritterbusch, Amy E. Title: A Youth Vision of the City: The Socio-Spatial Lives and Exclusion of Street Girls in Bogota, Colombia Summary: This dissertation documents the everyday lives and spaces of a population of youth typically constructed as out of place, and the broader urban context in which they are rendered as such. Thirty-three female and transgender street youth participated in the development of this youth-based participatory action research (YPAR) project utilizing geo-ethnographic methods, auto-photography, and archival research throughout a six-phase, eighteen-month research process in Bogotá, Colombia. This dissertation details the participatory writing process that enabled the YPAR research team to destabilize dominant representations of both street girls and urban space and the participatory mapping process that enabled the development of a youth vision of the city through cartographic images. The maps display individual and aggregate spatial data indicating trends within and making comparisons between three subgroups of the research population according to nine spatial variables. These spatial data, coupled with photographic and ethnographic data, substantiate that street girls’ mobilities and activity spaces intersect with and are altered by state-sponsored urban renewal projects and paramilitary-led social cleansing killings, both efforts to clean up Bogotá by purging the city center of deviant populations and places. Advancing an ethical approach to conducting research with excluded populations, this dissertation argues for the enactment of critical field praxis and care ethics within a YPAR framework to incorporate young people as principal research actors rather than merely voices represented in adultist academic discourse. Interjection of considerations of space, gender, and participation into the study of street youth produce new ways of envisioning the city and the role of young people in research. Instead of seeing the city from a panoptic view, Bogotá is revealed through the eyes of street youth who participated in the construction and feminist visualization of a new cartography and counter-map of the city grounded in embodied, situated praxis. This dissertation presents a socially responsible approach to conducting action-research with high-risk youth by documenting how street girls reclaim their right to the city on paper and in practice; through maps of their everyday exclusion in Bogotá followed by activism to fight against it. Details: Miami, FL: Florida International University, 2011. 242p. Source: FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations, Paper 432: Internet Resource: Accessed October 22, 2012 at http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/432 Year: 2011 Country: Colombia URL: http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/432 Shelf Number: 126765 Keywords: Crime AnalysisGeographic Distribution of CrimeGeographic StudiesStreet Children, Girls (Colombia) |
Author: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime Title: Criminal Intelligence: Manual for Analysts Summary: This manual offers criminal intelligence guidance to analysts from understanding relevant concepts and categories, through to specific components of the intelligence process. Specially, the manual clarifies evaluation sources of intelligence and data, focusing particularly on basic analytical techniques, including link analysis, event charting, flow analysis and telephone analysis. The manual also equips practitioners to develop inferences and present he results of their analysis. Details: Vienna: UNODC, 2011. 104p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed October 25, 2012 at: http://www.unodc.org/documents/organized-crime/Law-Enforcement/Criminal_Intelligence_for_Analysts.pdf Year: 2011 Country: International URL: http://www.unodc.org/documents/organized-crime/Law-Enforcement/Criminal_Intelligence_for_Analysts.pdf Shelf Number: 126802 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCriminal IntelligenceHandbooksIntelligence Gathering |
Author: Hart, Timothy C. Title: Effects of Data Quality on Predictive Hotspot Mapping Summary: The purpose of the current research was to contribute to the improved robustness of predictive crime mapping techniques. Our goal was to investigate the effect of data quality on predictive hotspot mapping analysis in order to achieve the following three objectives: 1. Determine empirical descriptions of the quality of a range of “typical” geocoding techniques employed in crime mapping, including their completeness, positional accuracy and repeatability; 2. Characterize the effects of data quality on the robustness of selected predictive crime hotspot mapping techniques; and 3. Determine the effects of analysis method, crime type, urban morphology and parameter settings for predictive crime hotspot mapping techniques given a range of typical data quality parameters within the context of the accuracy and precision of hotspot prediction. The current study analyzed over 400,000 crime incident records from six large law enforcement jurisdictions in the U.S. Details: Final Report to the U.S. National Institute of Justice, 2012. 89p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed November 24, 2012 at: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/239861.pdf Year: 2012 Country: United States URL: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/239861.pdf Shelf Number: 126992 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime Mapping (U.S.)Hotspots of Crime |
Author: Paulsen, Derek Title: Survey and Evaluation of Online Crime Mapping Companies Summary: The purpose of this research is to provide a baseline assessment of the state of the online crime mapping field. Specifically, this report is designed to determine how many online crime mapping companies there are, the basic functions and services they provide, and the accuracy with which they re-produce the local crime data of a police agency. Seven different online mapping companies were identified and canvassed on a number of topics relating to their businesses. In addition to basic information about customer base, questions were asked concerning data acquisition, data integrity, and data archiving. Results indicate that there is a range of online mapping company types, each with a slightly different focus or market. These online mapping companies are effective in handling data uploading, data validation, secure data storage, and how they handle complaints and service issues. Finally, the various online mapping companies analyzed are providing accurate data, with over 80% of all errors being within 300 feet of incident locations. In addition to these findings, recommendations are made for areas of future study and research. Details: North Charleston, South Carolina: SCRA Applied R&D, 2012. 25p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed December 20, 2012 at https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/239908.pdf Year: 2012 Country: United States URL: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/239908.pdf Shelf Number: 127246 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime Mapping |
Author: Cho, Seo-Young Title: Modelling for Determinants of Human Trafficking Summary: This study aims to identify robust push and pull factors of human trafficking. I test for the robustness of 70 push and 63 pull factors suggested in the literature. By employing an extreme bound analysis, running more than two million regressions with all possible combinations of variables for up to 153 countries during the period of 1995-2010, I show that crime prevalence robustly explains human trafficking prevalence both in destination and origin countries. My finding also implies that a low level of gender equality may have constraining effects on human trafficking outflows, contrary to expectations. The linkage between general migration and human trafficking is less clear but a certain type of globalization facilitating migration – exposure to foreign contacts and information – determines human trafficking. Institutional quality matters more in origin countries than destinations. Details: Berlin: Economics of Security, 2012. 41p. Source: Economics of Security Working Paper 70: Internet Resource: Accessed December 21, 2012 at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2117838 Year: 2012 Country: International URL: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2117838 Shelf Number: 127248 Keywords: Crime AnalysisHuman TraffickingMigration |
Author: Harris, Philip Title: Investigating the Simultaneous Effects of Individual, Program and Neighborhood Attributes On Juvenile Recidivism Using GIS and Spatial Data Mining Summary: The primary goal of this project was to develop, apply, and evaluate improved techniques to investigate the simultaneous effects of neighborhood and program forces in preventing juvenile recidivism. For many years, program evaluation researchers have presented the question, “What works to prevent delinquency for whom under what circumstances?” In community settings, answering this question presents a unique challenge, since “circumstances” includes the home neighborhoods of youths participating in correctional programs. Understanding how programs and neighborhoods jointly shape youth behavior and identifying conditions under which rehabilitative programs are successful are fundamental to planning programs that facilitate positive trajectories for physical, social, cognitive, and affective youth development. We investigated the simultaneous effects of neighborhood, program, and individual characteristics (including family) on juvenile recidivism using linear modeling, geographic information systems (GIS) and spatial data mining. GIS provides the technology to integrate diverse spatial data sets, quantify spatial relationships, and visualize the results of spatial analysis. In the context of juvenile recidivism, this approach will facilitate the investigation of how, and why, recidivism rates vary from place to place, through different programs, and among individuals. The project applies spatial data mining to the analysis of adjudicated juvenile delinquents assigned to court‐ordered programs by the Family Court of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. This population encompasses all adjudicated delinquents committed to programs by the court during the years 1996 to 2002 – more than 26,000 cases. The proposed study makes use of three levels of data: individual, program and neighborhood. In addition to data on individual youths and their families, we will employ a database of designs of the programs that they attended and two or more spatial data sets, including the crime data from Philadelphia Police Department and the U. S. Census. This study includes a vast methodological departure from current practices and can greatly improve the chances of learning more about the dynamics of juvenile recidivism, leading to more effective prevention policies and programs. Details: Philadelphia: Temple University, Department of Criminal Justice, 2012. 254p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed January 24, 2013 at: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/237986.pdf Year: 2012 Country: United States URL: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/237986.pdf Shelf Number: 127373 Keywords: Crime AnalysisDelinquency PreventionGeographic Distribution of CrimeJuvenile RecidivismNeighborhoods and CrimePeer InfluenceRehabilitation, Juvenile OffendersTreatment Programs |
Author: DiPoala, Audrey Title: An Exploration of Gun Violence and Prevention: Toward the Development of an Inclusive Database Working Paper 2 of 3: Databases as Prevention Summary: This paper is the second in a series of three addressing the need for developing a shooting database in Rochester. The benefit from crime analysis has been seen in recent years as smart policing has come to the forefront. This paper addresses the role that databases play in crime prevention and then moves toward a focus on the need for a shooting database and what role that would play in law enforcement. In addition to providing examples of crime databases, this paper will also highlight the variables necessary to include in a database specific to shooting victims. Details: Rochester, NY: Center for Public Safety Initiatives Rochester Institute of Technology, 2013. 17p. Source: Internet Resource: Working Paper # 2013-2: Accessed May 4, 2013 at: http://www.rit.edu/cla/cpsi/WorkingPapers/2013/2013-03.pdf Year: 2013 Country: United States URL: http://www.rit.edu/cla/cpsi/WorkingPapers/2013/2013-03.pdf Shelf Number: 128662 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime PreventionGun Violence (U.S.)Violent Crimes |
Author: Paine, Colin Title: Solvability Factors in Dwelling Burglaries in Thames Valley Summary: This study replicates previous research aimed at identifying those factors associated with solved residential burglaries. This study analyses all cases of residential burglary in Thames Valley between 1st March 2010 and 31st October 2011. Analysis identified a host of factors correlated to solved cases, but of these just 12 are recognised as effective solvability factors. This study confirms the findings of previous studies in identifying the following variables as effective solvability factors, a) fingerprints recovered; b) offender seen; c) witness recorded; d) offender’s vehicle sighted; e) offender disturbed; f) description of the suspect is recorded. However, this study advances the list of known solvability factors further by identifying six new variables that were traditionally overlooked and some of which result from advances in science, these are a) footwear marks; b) DNA; c) citizens’ reports on the burglary being in progress, d) the stolen property is recovered; e) articles left the scene by the offender and f) whether a vehicle was stolen in the crime. The magnitude of these effects, measured with standardised mean differences, suggest that the presence of these factors is strongly associated with solvability, some with very large effect sizes often exceeding Cohen’s d = 1.0. The analyses suggest that over 50% of all burglaries had one or more solvability factors present, and having one or more of these solvability factors was associated with over 60% accuracy in detection. If used as a screening tool, this solvability analysis approach Thames Valley Police would be required to investigate just over 40% of cases for investigation, as all other cases are unlikely to be solved. The policy implications of using solvability factors analysis is clear; implementing this approach as a screening tool enables police leaders to choose a suitable cut-off point that will allow an optimal balance between resource usage and detection levels. Sensitivity analysis identified that the geographical distribution of burglary solvability factors across Thames Valley is not even. The policy implication being that differential targets may offer a fairer and more effective incentive to police area commanders instead of force wide targets. Details: Cambridge, UK: University of Cambridge, 2012. 153p. Source: Internet Resource: Thesis: Accessed May 29, 2013 at: http://library.college.police.uk/docs/Burglary-Solvability-2013.pdf Year: 2012 Country: United Kingdom URL: http://library.college.police.uk/docs/Burglary-Solvability-2013.pdf Shelf Number: 128847 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCriminal InvestigationResidential Burglary (U.K.)Stolen Property |
Author: Police Executive Research Forum Title: Compstat: Its Origins, Evolution, and Future in Law Enforcement Agencies Summary: This report, “Compstat: Its Origins, Evolution, and Future in Law Enforcement Agencies,” traces how Compstat came into being, how it changed as it spread to hundreds of police agencies across the country, and where it’s headed for the future. Begun 20 years ago in New York City, Compstat has become a part of the institutional DNA of policing. With support from the Bureau of Justice Assistance, PERF launched a project to assess how this happened. We conducted a survey of law enforcement agencies about their Compstat systems, and we held a national conference in which police executives and other experts described their experiences with Compstat. Then PERF conducted site visits in law enforcement agencies across the country, observing Compstat meetings and interviewing local officials. We found that law enforcement agencies have taken Compstat in different directions and to new levels of performance since it was first developed. Few policing innovations have been more transformative than Compstat. Compstat changed how police view crime problems. Instead of merely responding to crimes after they are committed, police expanded their mission to focus on preventing the next crime. Compstat helps to achieve that mission. Details: Washington, DC: Police Executive Research Forum, 2013. 52p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed August 10, 2013 at: http://policeforum.org/library/compstat/Compstat.pdf Year: 2013 Country: United States URL: http://policeforum.org/library/compstat/Compstat.pdf Shelf Number: 129614 Keywords: Compstat (U.S.)Crime AnalysisPolice AdministrationPolice ManagementProblem-Oriented Policing |
Author: Gorr, Wilpen L. Title: Longitudinal Study of Crime Hot Spots: Dynamics and Impact on Part 1 Violent Crime Summary: Objectives: Design and estimate the impacts of a prevention program for part 1 violent crimes in micro-place crime hot spots. Methods: A longitudinal study of crime hot spots using 21 years of crime offense report data on part 1 violent crimes from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Based on kernel density smoothing for a definition of micro-place crime hot spots, we replicate past work on the existence of "chronic" hot spots, but then with such hot spots accounted for introduce "temporary" hot spots. Results: Chronic hot spots are good targets for prevention. They are easily identified and they tend to persist. Temporary hot spots, however, predominantly last only one month. Thus the common practice of identifying hot spots using a short time window of crime data and assuming that the resulting hot spots will persist is ineffective for temporary hot spots. Instead it is necessary to forecast the emergence of temporary hot spots to prevent their crimes. Over time chronic hot spots, while still important, have accounted for less crime while temporary hot spots have grown, accounting for a larger share. Chronic hot spots are relatively easy targets for police whereas temporary hot spots require forecasting methods not commonly in use by police. Conclusions: The paper estimates approximately a 10 to 20 percent reduction in part 1 violent crimes in Pittsburgh if the hot spot enforcement program proposed in this paper were implemented. Details: Pittsburgh, PA: H. John III Heinz College, Carnegie Mellon University,, 2012. 29p. Source: Internet Resource: Working Paper: Accessed October 28, 2013 at: Year: 2012 Country: United States URL: http://www.heinz.cmu.edu/research/447full.pdf Shelf Number: 131486 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime HotspotsCrime PreventionViolent Crime |
Author: Carter, David C. Title: Homicide Process Mapping: Best Practices for Increasing Homicide Clearances Summary: Since 1990, the number of homicides committed in the United States has dropped over 30 percent. While this is a positive trend, it is somewhat counter-balanced by another trend: in the mid-1970s, the average homicide clearance rate in the United States was around 80 percent. Today, that number has dropped to 65 percent - hence, more offenders are literally getting away with murder. The Bureau of Justice Assistance (BJA), a component of the U.S. Department of Justice's Office of Justice Programs (OJP), recognizes that the problem of violence in the United States requires a multifaceted approach. In a coordinated initiative of projects, BJA has examined the manner in which trends in violence are identified by law enforcement for tactical purposes, reviewed how cutting-edge analysis and the integration of resources can disrupt trends in violent crime, and examined two decades of violence-reduction initiatives to determine what works. Based on lessons learned, new initiatives are explored, such as the Law Enforcement Forecasting Group (LEFG), which produced a paper on the importance of the analytic process for crime control (tactically) and resource allocation for crime reduction (strategically). Collectively, the lessons from these initiatives - and other initiatives by BJA and companion OJP components - provide guidance on new avenues to explore. Based on the findings from these projects, one of the focal points in violence suppression initiatives that BJA explored was the most efficacious method to manage homicide investigations. Two paths were used toward this end. The current project on Homicide Process Mapping focused on investigative practices. A companion project by the International Association of Chiefs of Police (IACP), 10 Things Law Enforcement Executives Can Do to Positively Impact Homicide Investigation Outcomes, focused on the administrative environment in support of homicide investigations. Both are essential for successful investigations. The purpose of this project was to identify best practices in homicide investigations that will result in an increase in homicide clearance rates. To accomplish this goal, seven geographically representative law enforcement agencies were identified that had at least 24 homicides in 2011 and had a clearance rate of 80 percent or higher. In addition, because the first 48 hours of a homicide investigation are critical, the project identified critical tasks in the first 48 hours of the investigation that increase the probability of a clearance. The selected agencies, both municipal and county, were the Baltimore County, Maryland, Police Department; the Denver, Colorado, Police Department; the Houston, Texas, Police Department; the Jacksonville, Florida, Sheriff's Office; the Richmond, Virginia, Police Department; the Sacramento County, California, Sheriff's Department; and the San Diego, California, Police Department. Each site was visited by two experienced homicide investigators and a police researcher who conducted interviews and reviewed documents. Interviews were conducted with the homicide commander, homicide supervisors, homicide investigators, and other personnel who each department believed were important in aiding successful homicide investigations. Following the collection of all information, the findings were broken down into strategic and tactical issues. Each of these is discussed in this report from a policy implementation perspective. This is followed by a summary of homicide investigation best practices that at least two agencies reported using. The report concludes with a process map that identifies critical investigative tasks to be performed in the first 48 hours after a homicide is reported. The process map is the product of a detailed analysis and integration of the processes used by the agencies in this project. While many factors contributed to successful homicide investigations, including some creative practices, there was one overarching factor: all of the agencies visited had laid a strong foundation of trust with the community and a strong foundation of cooperation and information sharing with other law enforcement agencies. Without this foundation, success will be limited. Details: Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Assi3tance, 2013. 67p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed November 11, 2013 at: http://www.iir.com/Documents/Homicide_Process_Mapping_September_email.pdf Year: 2013 Country: United States URL: http://www.iir.com/Documents/Homicide_Process_Mapping_September_email.pdf Shelf Number: 131618 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime MappingCriminal InvestigationHomicides (U.S.)Violent Crimes |
Author: Matthies, Carl Title: Putting a Value on Crime Analysts: Considerations for Law Enforcement Executives Summary: Like other government agencies, police departments are under great pressure to get the biggest return possible when investing taxpayers' dollars in justice programs and policies. The Law Enforcement Forecasting Group of the U.S. Department of Justice's Bureau of Justice Assistance asked Vera to develop a resource to help police departments address questions about spending on crime analysts-and about justifying that spending. As part of its Cost-Benefit Knowledge Bank for Criminal Justice, Vera's Cost-Benefit Analysis Unit staff created this paper, which law enforcement agencies can use as they weigh their options on staffing and programs. Details: New York: Vera Institute of Justice, 2014. 18p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed May 14, 2014 at: http://www.vera.org/sites/default/files/resources/downloads/putting-value-crime-analysts.pdf Year: 2014 Country: United States URL: http://www.vera.org/sites/default/files/resources/downloads/putting-value-crime-analysts.pdf Shelf Number: 132349 Keywords: Cost-Benefit AnalysisCrime Analysis |
Author: Curman, Andrea S. Nemeth Title: Crime and Place: A Longitudinal Examination of Street Segment Patterns in Vancouver, B.C. Summary: The study of crime and place recognizes the important interplay between the physical landscape and criminal activity. In doing so, research in this area has shown substantial concentrations of crime amongst micro geographic units, such as street blocks. Despite these revelations, little research has examined whether such criminal concentrations persist over time. The developmental trajectory of criminal activity on street blocks was originally studied in Seattle, Washington. This dissertation replicates that seminal study by examining crime volumes on the streets of Vancouver, British Columbia, over a 16 year period using a group-based trajectory model (GBTM). Going further, this research also applies a non-parametric technique, termed k-means to address various limitations inherent to the GBTM method. The major findings reveal the majority of street blocks in Vancouver evidence stable crime levels, with a minority of street blocks throughout the city showing decreasing crime trajectories over the 16 year period. Both statistical techniques found comparable patterns of crime throughout Vancouver. A geographic analysis of the identified crime trajectories revealed linear concentrations of high, medium and low decreasing trajectories throughout the city, with the high decreasing street blocks showing particularly visible concentrations in the northeast part of Vancouver. Overall, the results confirm the original conclusions from the Seattle study in that many street blocks evidence significant developmental trajectories of crime and that the application of trajectory analysis to crime at micro places is a strategically useful way to examine the longevity of crime clusters. The results did not support the existence or stability of bad areas, but did find 'bad streets'. It is recommended that police and public safety practitioners pay close attention to the varying levels of criminal activity on street blocks when developing place-based crime prevention initiatives. Details: Burnaby, BC: Simon Fraser University, 2012. 180p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed June 26, 2014 at: summit.sfu.ca Year: 2012 Country: Canada URL: summit.sfu.ca Shelf Number: 132560 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime PatternsCrime PreventionGeographical AnalysisHigh Crime AreasHot-SpotsPlace-BasedStreet Crime |
Author: Hunt, Priscillia Title: Evaluation of the Shreveport Predictive Policing Experiment Summary: Predictive policing is the application of statistical methods to identify likely targets for police intervention (the predictions) to prevent crimes or solve past crimes, followed by conducting interventions against those targets. The concept has been of high interest in recent years as evidenced by the growth of academic, policy, and editorial reports; however, there have been few formal evaluations of predictive policing efforts to date. In response, the National Institute of Justice (NIJ) funded the Shreveport Police Department (SPD) in Louisiana to conduct a predictive policing experiment in 2012. SPD staff developed and estimated a statistical model of the likelihood of property crimes occurring within block-sized areas. Then, using a blocked randomized approach to identify treatment and control district pairs, districts assigned to the treatment group were given maps that highlighted blocks predicted to be at higher risk of property crime. These districts were also provided with overtime resources to conduct special operations. Control districts conducted property crime-related special operations using overtime resources as well, just targeting areas that had recently seen property crimes (hot spots). This study presents results of an evaluation of the processes in addition to the impacts and costs of the SPD predictive policing experiment. It should be of interest to those considering predictive policing and directed law enforcement systems and operations, and to analysts conducting experiments and evaluations of public safety strategies. This evaluation is part of a larger project funded by the NIJ, composed of two phases. Phase I focuses on the development and estimation of predictive models, and Phase II involves implementation of a prevention model using the predictive model. For Phase II, RAND is evaluating predictive policing strategies conducted by the SPD and the Chicago Police Department (contract #2009-IJ-CX-K114). This report is one product from Phase II. Details: Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2014. 88p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed August 4, 2014 at: http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR500/RR531/RAND_RR531.pdf Year: 2014 Country: United States URL: http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR500/RR531/RAND_RR531.pdf Shelf Number: 132885 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime PredictionCrime PreventionHot-Spots PolicingPredictive PolicingProperty Crimes |
Author: Ratcliffe, Jerry H. Title: Smart Policing Initiative: Final Report Summary: This report documents the experimental results from the Temple University sub-contractual part of the Smart Policing Initiative funding awarded the City of Philadelphia. This project was supported by Grant No. 2009-DG-BX-K021 awarded by the Bureau of Justice Assistance. The project centered on a randomized field experiment. The study was designed and conducted as part of a continuing research-practitioner partnership with the Philadelphia Police Department. The Police Commissioner and management team were actively involved in the planning of the experiment so that the experimental design would more closely approximate how hot spots policing would occur naturally in a large urban police department. As the Commissioner wrote in the city's crime fighting strategy; In today's economy, we must be smart and judicious about allocating police resources. Saturation patrol is not an informed solution to preventing or reducing a rising crime problem. We must understand what works, how it works, when it works, and where it works. The answers to these questions provide the foundation for "evidence-based" policing strategies. First, violent crime hotspots were delineated using spatial statistics. Violent crime point data were accessed from the city's 2009 incident database. Violent crime was defined as homicide, robbery, aggravated assault and misdemeanor assault. Two different local measures for detecting spatial association and concentration were applied: Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) and Hierarchical Nearest Neighbor Clustering (HNN). Full details of the analysis strategy are found in the chapters that follow. A total of 81 mutually-exclusive target areas were identified, allowing 21 of these to be used as controls. Senior police commanders (District Captains) were asked to use their operational knowledge to delineate the final boundaries of deployment areas and to identify which type of intervention should be applied in each. They were asked to identify 27 areas suitable for foot patrol, 27 areas that would benefit from problem-solving and 27 areas where police would focus enforcement on violent repeat offenders. Police commanders drew deployment areas around the hot spots identified by the LISA and HNN analyses taking into consideration the street network and environmental features. The 81 deployment areas were then displayed on a new map. In subsequent meetings with the Regional Operations Commanders, the deployment areas' boundaries were revised to balance police operations with research priorities (e.g., achieving geographic separation of the target areas to allow for examination of displacement/diffusion effects). The final 81 hot spots were small, containing an average of 3 miles of streets and 23.5 intersections. The 81 hot spot deployment areas were stratified into three groups prior to randomization based on their pretest score on treatment suitability as qualitatively evaluated by police department commanders. Random assignment using a random number generator was performed separately for each stratum of 27 areas resulting in 20 areas being assigned to treatment and 7 to control. The three experimental areas were targeted for at least three months with, problem-oriented policing, offender-focused activity, or foot patrol. The report that follows documents the experimental results of the study, a pre-post survey of officers involved in the experiment, and a pre-post survey of residents in the experimental areas. Details: Philadelphia: Temple University, Center for Security and Crime Science, 2013. 92p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed August 11, 2014 at: http://webcastium.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Smart-1-final-report-Temple-University.pdf Year: 2013 Country: United States URL: http://webcastium.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Smart-1-final-report-Temple-University.pdf Shelf Number: 132973 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime HotspotsFoot PatrolPolice PatrolPolicing InnovationsProblem-Oriented PolicingViolent Crime |
Author: Bachner, Jennifer Title: Predictive Policing: Preventing Crime with Data and Analytics Summary: In this report, Dr. Bachner tells compelling stories of how new policing approaches in communities are turning traditional police officers into "data detectives." Police departments across the country have adapted business techniques -- initially developed by retailers, such as Netflix and WalMart, to predict consumer behavior -- to predict criminal behavior. The report presents case studies of the experiences of Santa Cruz, CA; Baltimore County, MD; and Richmond, VA, in using predictive policing as a new and effective tool to combat crime. While this report focuses on the use of predictive techniques and tools for preventing crime in local communities, these techniques and tools can also be applied to other policy arenas, as well, such as the efforts by the Department of Housing and Urban Development to predict and prevent homelessness, or the Federal Emergency Management Agency's efforts to identify and mitigate communities vulnerable to natural disasters. Details: Washington, DC: IBM Center for The Business of Government, 2013. 40p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed August 12, 2014 at: http://www.businessofgovernment.org/sites/default/files/Predictive%20Policing.pdf Year: 2013 Country: United States URL: http://www.businessofgovernment.org/sites/default/files/Predictive%20Policing.pdf Shelf Number: 133020 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime PreventionData MiningPredictive Policing |
Author: Goredema, Charles Title: Mapping crime networks in Southern Africa: A new approach Summary: Current perceptions of organised crime are too rigid and narrow. The definition of organised crime should consider it as comprising a set of core activities and should also encompass the ancillary acts of those who assist core actors. To gather information on the reach of criminal networks and establish how they sustain themselves, the authorities should perceive such networks as organisations involved in business. Furthermore, organised crime is transnational and market based, but attempts to deal with it are constrained by state sovereignty. The effective disruption of crime networks should be informed by a network analysis that transcends national borders, while legal procedures should be harmonised across such borders. Details: Pretoria: Institute for Security Studies, 2014. 8p. Source: Internet Resource: Policy Brief 58: Accessed August 14, 2014 at: http://www.issafrica.org/uploads/PolBrief58_IDRC.pdf Year: 2014 Country: South Africa URL: http://www.issafrica.org/uploads/PolBrief58_IDRC.pdf Shelf Number: 133047 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCriminal Networks Organized Crime (South Africa) |
Author: Martin-Roethele, Chelsie Title: Police Innovation: Enhancing Research and Analysis Capacity through Smart Policing Summary: Much research has been done on innovations in policing over the past few decades. However, little research has been done on the Smart Policing Initiative, the latest innovation in economically and financially effective crime prevention and reduction strategies. One of the key aspects of the Smart Policing Initiative is the collaboration of police agencies and research partners to more effectively address specific crime issues. The current study uses mean score comparisons and qualitative responses to evaluate this partnership to determine the extent of its value and effect. It also seeks to determine the areas of police agency crime analysis and research units that are most in need of enhancement. Findings are that the research partners are actively involved in a range of aspects involved in problem solving under the Smart Policing Initiative, and that they have positively influenced police agencies' research and crime analysis functions, and to a lesser extent, have positively impacted police agencies' tactical operations. Additionally, personnel, technology, and training were found to be the main areas of the crime analysis and research units that still need to be enhanced. Details: Phoenix: Arizona State University, 2013. 92p. Source: Internet Resource: Thesis: Accessed August 23, 2014 at: http://cvpcs.asu.edu/products/police-innovation-enhancing-research-and-analysis-capacity-through-smart-policing Year: 2013 Country: United States URL: http://cvpcs.asu.edu/products/police-innovation-enhancing-research-and-analysis-capacity-through-smart-policing Shelf Number: 133130 Keywords: CollaborationCrime AnalysisPartnershipsPolicingPolicing Innovation |
Author: Fuller, Georgina Title: Where and when: A profile of armed robbery by location Summary: Armed robbery is a diverse, heterogeneous crime shaped by the presence or absence of a wide array of characteristics. Therefore, effectively preventing armed robbery requires a good understanding of the nature of the offence. Previous attempts to understand armed robbery have focused on the offender, primarily by interviewing incarcerated offenders to gain insight into their motivations and planning. However, this approach overlooks the unique vulnerabilities associated with the victim and/or the location of the offence. In this paper, four armed robbery profiles have been constructed, based on information contained in qualitative police narratives supplied as part of the AIC's National Armed Robbery Monitoring Program. These profiles highlight the way in which the location, environment and offender interact to shape individual incidents of armed robbery in Australia and may assist to inform prevention strategies. Details: Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology, 2014. 8p. Source: Internet Resource: Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice, No. 479: Accessed September 11, 2014 at: http://www.aic.gov.au/media_library/publications/tandi_pdf/tandi479.pdf Year: 2014 Country: Australia URL: http://www.aic.gov.au/media_library/publications/tandi_pdf/tandi479.pdf Shelf Number: 133273 Keywords: Armed RobberyCrime AnalysisLocationOffender Decision MakingRobberyViolent Crime |
Author: Eck, John E. Title: Intelligence Analysis for Problem Solvers Summary: before the attack - that is, for failing to detect a pattern in the scattered items of information about the hijackers that had come to the attention of various federal and state agencies. The resulting calls for intelligence reform were at first confined to the nation's security agencies, the FBI and the CIA. Soon police leaders began to argue that their agencies, too, had a vital role in addressing terrorism and that they must be included in the loop. Terrorism may have raised the profile of police intelligence, but it is not the main reason for improving its use. Police intelligence has a far wider role in public safety, crime reduction, and order maintenance. This wider role is explored throughout this manual. Unfortunately, the word "intelligence" also raises public fears that secretly collected police information will be used to subvert individual liberties and democratic institutions. We will touch on these concerns later; here, we should explain why we wrote the manual, who it is for, and what it covers. What is this manual about and who is it for? As we discuss in Step 1, intelligence analysis is "a process for making sense of a diverse array of information about crime problems created by offender groups, with the goal of reducing crime." Numerous books and manuals for crime analysts are available that describe how to process data to guide police anti-crime tactics and strategies. In contrast, most writing on police intelligence focuses on data gathering and sharing, administration, and legal requirements. These are all important topics, but they do not help the analyst analyze, i.e., make sense of the data in order to glimpse behind the veil of a criminal enterprise. Our manual fills this gap by providing a practical guide to intelligence analysis, much like our earlier manual on crime analysis written for the Center for Problem-Oriented Policing. In writing this manual, it soon became clear that police intelligence has a much larger mission than simply finding out who is up to no good, who they hang out with, what they are about to do, and where they can be found. These are the sorts of questions we normally expect police intelligence to address. However, there are other questions that intelligence analysis can effectively address, such as: How do offenders commit their crimes? What circumstances help them commit their crimes? And, what countermeasures might prevent them from doing so? In short, we look beyond the "who" to address "how," "when," "where," and "what." This manual fuses aspects of intelligence analysis with Problem-Oriented Policing. The links between the two have been ignored in the past, with the exception of Jerry Ratcliffe's book referenced below. However, knowing how intelligence analysis can help solve problems and how problem solving can improve the effectiveness of intelligence analysis will aid any police practitioner interested in reducing crime or disorder. This manual is not intended to serve the entire law enforcement community. Nor does it describe all facets of intelligence. Rather it focuses on the analysis of intelligence, and we wrote it for three groups in local policing agencies: (1) intelligence officers and analysts, (2) crime analysts who might need to use intelligence information and, (3) police managers who supervise crime and intelligence analysts. If you are such a manager, and you find that the work of analysts is something of a mystery, then we hope this manual can demystify their work and help you make better use of your analysts. Details: Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Community Oriented Policing Services; Madison, WI: Center for Problem-Oriented Policing, 2013. 144p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed October 9, 2014 at: http://www.popcenter.org/library/reading/pdfs/Intell-Analysis-for-ProbSolvers.pdf Year: 2013 Country: International URL: http://www.popcenter.org/library/reading/pdfs/Intell-Analysis-for-ProbSolvers.pdf Shelf Number: 133627 Keywords: Crime AnalysisIntelligence AnalysisPolice Intelligence Gathering (U.S.)Problem Solving AnalysisTerrorism |
Author: Ouko, Edward Opiyo Title: Where, when and why are there elephant poaching hotspots in Kenya? Summary: Poaching for elephant tusks is a major short-run threat to the African elephant with land fragmentation a threat in the longer run. Due to difficulties in distinguishing poached ivory and ivory purchased from legal sources, the Kenyan government decided not to trade in ivory confiscated from poachers. This decision was announced to the world on 18th July 1989. Kenya burned 2,000 confiscated elephant tusks to show its effort and commitment to saving the elephant from eminent extinction. This study identifies the spatial and temporal clusters of elephant poaching incidences in Kenya and the associate d biophysical and human factors using geographical information systems, spatial scan statistic SaTScan, and boosted regression trees. The spatial scan statistic detected most likely significant clusters (hotspots) for time window of 1, 6, and 12 months. Similarly, significant secondary clusters were also simulated from the analysis. More elephant poaching crimes were confirmed to be repeated next to the protected areas boundaries, at lowlands and at mean altitude of 1300 meters above sea level. Areas closer to roads and rivers contributed more to poaching cases. High income regions recorded more elephant related crimes. Regions dominated by kaolin clay soils, bush-lands, forests, plantations and grasslands are main targets of the poachers. This study provides evidence of the existence of statistically significant poaching hotspots/clusters in Kenya and also identifies the associated factors explaining such patterns. The applied methods demonstrated their relevance and applicability in analysing elephant crime data to identify hotspots. Details: Twente, NETH: University of Twente, 2013. 87p. Source: Internet Resource: Thesis: http://www.itc.nl/library/papers_2013/msc/gem/ouko.pdf Year: 2013 Country: Kenya URL: http://www.itc.nl/library/papers_2013/msc/gem/ouko.pdf Shelf Number: 133796 Keywords: Animal Poaching Crime AnalysisCrime Hotspots Elephants (Kenya) Geographical Analysis High Crime Areas Ivory Wildlife Conservation Wildlife Crimes (Kenya) |
Author: Jackson, Brian A. Title: Police Department Investments in Information Technology Systems: Challenges Assessing Their Payoff Summary: The potential effects of information technology (IT) systems on police productivity will be driven, in part, by the match between the technology and police activities. In modern policing, how information is used for reactive response to incidents is significantly different from proactive and community-policing activities, so we expect the effects of IT to be quite different. The authors developed a logic model of police functions to guide examination of the different expected effects of IT on productivity. The logic model helped guide a statistical analysis in an effort to identify productivity and budgetary effects of different IT investments in police departments. However, even the best available data were insufficient to break down police agencies use of the technology at a sufficient level of granularity to provide meaningful results. Future efforts to assess the effects of IT systems on law enforcement performance can benefit from the results of the logic modeling and exploratory analysis. Specifically, it is important to collect data not just on department acquisition of IT systems, but also on how the systems are used and the activities that the use is intended to support. In considering potential productivity improvement from IT use, analysts need ways to measure relative levels of effort devoted to different police functions because the role of IT as a force multiplier means that its benefits will be driven, in part, by the force available to multiply. Details: Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2014. 17p. Source: Internet Resource: Assessed November 3, 2014 at: http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR500/RR569/RAND_RR569.pdf Year: 2014 Country: United States URL: http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR500/RR569/RAND_RR569.pdf Shelf Number: 133942 Keywords: Crime AnalysisInformation Technology (U.S.)Police PerformancePolice ProductivityPolicing |
Author: Bryant, Kevin M. Title: Data Driven Approaches to Crime and Traffic Safety - Shawnee, Kansas 2010-2013 Summary: This report describes the results of a study funded by the Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Assistance, Smart Policing Initiative to study the implementation of Data-Driven Approaches to Crime and Traffic Safety (DDACTS) by the Shawnee Police Department from July 6, 2010 until July 6, 2013. Specifically, the research project examined the effects of DDACTS on vehicle theft, vehicle burglary, robbery, and vehicle collisions in a selected target zone. In addition, the study examined officer attitudes toward the implementation of DDACTS, as well business and resident perceptions. An analysis of officer focus group interviews shows evidence of a shift in culture and officer "buy-in" within the Shawnee Police Department, especially with the divisions of the department most closely associated with the DDACTS initiative. Specifically, participants in the patrol, traffic, supervisors, and command staff focus groups revealed a close awareness of the purpose of DDACTS, and the strengths and weaknesses of the approach toward training. Moreover, the majority of the participants in these focus groups believe that DDACTS is an effective and sustainable initiative. There are some exceptions. The dispatch and investigations focus groups revealed less awareness of the purpose of DDACTS, but similar perceptions about DDACTS training as other areas of the department. However, dispatchers and detectives are significantly less positive regarding the effectiveness and sustainability of the DDACTS initiative. Surveys of businesses and residents in the target zone showed that a majority of respondents perceive a greater police presence and more traffic stops. Most respondents believe DDACTS has improved the quality of life in Shawnee. Most respondents rate the relationship between SPD and residents and businesses as very good to excellent. In addition, respondents support high-visibility, targeted traffic enforcement. A pre and post-test comparison of means evaluation design with two comparison groups examined the effects of the DDACTS initiative on vehicle burglary, vehicle theft, robbery, and collisions. The findings reveal a greater reduction in crime and collisions in the DDACTS zone compared to the control zone and the rest of Shawnee. The following statistics show the 3-year post-test period for the DDACTS zone: - Vehicle Burglary was reduced by 32.86% - Vehicle Theft was reduced by 40.32% - Robbery was reduced by 70.37% - Collisions with injuries were reduced by 24.39% - Collisions without injuries were reduced by 24.18% - Total Target Crime was reduced by 39.52% - Total Collisions were reduced by 24.20% Additional analyses were conducted to test for crime displacement and diffusion of benefits. The findings of these additional analyses revealed no strong evidence of displaced target crimes due to DDACTS. There is statistical evidence of the diffused benefits of the DDACTS initiative on vehicle theft and total target crimes; that is, the crime reducing effect of DDACTS extends beyond the DDACTS zone for these crime categories. Details: Prepared for the U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Assistance, 2014. 99p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed March 16, 2015 at: http://www.smartpolicinginitiative.com/sites/all/files/Shawnee%20KS%20PD%20SPI%20Final%20Report%20DDACTS.pdf Year: 2014 Country: United States URL: Shelf Number: 134936 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime DisplacementData-Driven ApproachesDiffusion of BenefitsTargeted EnforcementVehicle BurglaryVehicle Crime (U.S.)Vehicle RobberyVehicle Theft |
Author: Irvin-Erickson, Yasemin Title: Identifying Risky Places for Crime: An Analysis of the Criminogenic Spatiotemporal Influences of Landscape Features on Street Robberies Summary: In environmental criminology, it is widely accepted that crime risk is affected by the legitimate and illegitimate activities hosted at places. Most studies exploring this influence use the concepts of environmental criminology to explain how landscape features (such as cash businesses, illegal markets) can promote criminal behavior. However, studies based on place-based indicators provide an incomplete picture of crime emergence. First, most studies assume a temporally uniform crime-generating influence of landscape features, ignoring the social relevancy of these features at different times. Second, in most crime and place studies, the spatial influence - the ways in which features of a landscape affect places throughout the landscape (Caplan, 2011, p. 57) - is operationalized arbitrarily (Ratcliffe, 2012). Moreover, few studies examine the interactivity of the criminogenic spatial influences of different landscape features on crime risk (Caplan et al., 2011). To address these limitations, this dissertation examined the individual and combined criminogenic spatiotemporal influences of landscape features on 2010 street robbery risk in the City of Newark, NJ, using the principles of Risk Terrain Modeling. Street robberies were classified into six daily and hourly temporal groups. According to the results of this dissertation, criminogenic features are different for different time models, and the extent and weight of their criminogenic influences vary between and within time nested models. At-risk housing, schools, churches, grocery stores, hair and nail salons, pawn shops, sit-down restaurants, and take-out restaurants are the only features that have round-the clock criminogenic influences on street robberies in all time models. Drug charges, pawn shops, grocery stores, take-out restaurants, and hair and nail salons exert the strongest criminogenic spatial influences in different time models. At-risk housing's, schools', and churches' criminogenic influences are statistically significant, albeit weak. High-risk micro places identified by the combined criminogenic spatiotemporal influences of landscape features are high likely places for street robberies in Newark, NJ. Details: Newark, NJ: Rutgers University, School of Criminal Justice, 2014. 161p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed April 1, 2015 at: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/248636.pdf Year: 2014 Country: United States URL: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/248636.pdf Shelf Number: 135114 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime PlacesEnvironmental CriminologyRisk ManagementSpatial AnalysisStreet Robbery |
Author: Uittenbogaard, Adriaan Cornelis Title: Clusters of Urban Crime and Safety in Transport Nodes Summary: The objective of the thesis is to provide a better understanding of the safety conditions in urban environments, particularly related to those found in transport nodes, in this case, underground stations, and surrounding areas1. First, the study starts with an analysis of the overall city, identifying concentrations of crime in the urban fabric and then focusing on the criminogenic conditions at and around underground stations. The analysis combines the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS), statistical techniques and data of different types and sources. Regression models were used to assess the importance of the environmental attributes of underground stations on crime rates. Findings show that violent and property crimes show different hotspots at different times. Crime patterns tend to follow people�s scheduled patterns of routine activity. The socio-economic composition of the surrounding environment of the stations has a significant impact on crime at these transport nodes, but more important were attributes of the physical and social environment at the stations. For instance, low guardianship and poor visibility at the stations together with mixed land-uses in the surrounding areas induced crime rates at the stations. It is therefore suggested that intervention to improve safety conditions at the stations should focus on a holistic approach, taking into account the station and surrounding areas, but also being aware of crime variation on specific places at specific times. Details: Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and the Build Environment, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management 2013. 36p. Source: Internet Resource: Thesis: Accessed May 1, 2015 at: http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:603657/FULLTEXT02 Year: 2013 Country: Sweden URL: http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:603657/FULLTEXT02 Shelf Number: 135455 Keywords: Crime Analysis Crime Hotspots Geographical Information Systems (GIS) High Crime Areas Transit Crime Transportation Urban Areas and Crime (Sweden) |
Author: Rydberg, Jason Title: Flint DDACTS Pilot Evaluation Summary: In response to the public safety challenges posed by high levels of violent crime and local level law enforcement resource constraints, the Michigan State Police (MSP) have developed the "Secure Cities" initiative as part of its strategic plan. The Secure Cities initiative involves providing additional MSP enforcement resources to Detroit, Flint, Pontiac and Saginaw; using data-driven planning; and developing evidence-informed and evidence-based strategies for addressing high levels of violent crime. One specific strategy has been the implementation of the Data-Driven Approaches to Crime and Traffic Safety (DDACTS) in Flint. The Flint DDACTS initiative began enforcement activities in January 2012. The current evaluation examined the program as it operated between January 2012 and March 2014. This report presents the findings of the evaluation of the Flint DDACTS program, describing both trends in program activities and the effect of DDACTS on violent crime. Key Findings - The DDACTS strategy targeted five hotspots for violent crime in Flint, later expanded to include two additional hotspot areas. - MSP collected very detailed activity data from the Troopers involved in DDACTS. This reflected exceptional performance output measures. - A significant level of patrol resources with associated activities occurred in these hotspot areas. Indeed, over 22,000 traffic stops occurred between January 1, 2012 and March 2014 as part of the DDACTS initiative. Nearly three-quarters of the traffic stops occurred in the targeted hotspots. This equated to significant enforcement presence in the hotspot areas with over 600 traffic stops occurring each month in the hotspot areas - For every 100 traffic stops, there were nearly 95 verbal warnings, 2 citations, 14 arrests for misdemeanor and felony charges, and 17 fugitive arrests. - The heavy use of verbal warnings appears to reflect concern with maintaining positive relationships with Flint residents. - The high number of arrests per traffic stop reflects a very high level of enforcement productivity. - The initial set of analyses focused on the trend in violent crime in the DDACTS hotspot target areas. Violent crime (homicide, aggravated assaults, robberies, criminal sexual conduct, weapons offenses) declined 19 percent in the hotspot areas. The declines were observed in 14 of the 27 months of the DDACTS initiative. The remainder of the city experienced a 7 percent decline in violent crime. - Robberies declined 30 percent in the hotspot areas. The remainder of the city experienced a 2 percent decline in robberies. - Several analyses were undertaken to test rival explanations for the decline in violent crime. Specifically, "synthetic" comparison areas consisting of block groups within the city that were not subject to the DDACTS initiative were compared to the trend in violent crime in the hotspot areas. The findings indicated that the comparison areas also experienced a decline in violent crime. Details: East Lansing, MI: Michigan State University, School of Criminal Justice, Michigan Justice Statistics Center, 2014. 67p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed May 16, 2015 at: http://cj.msu.edu/assets/DDACTS-Report-Expanded_BJS_2012_BJ_CX_K036-1-2-FINAL.pdf Year: 2014 Country: United States URL: http://cj.msu.edu/assets/DDACTS-Report-Expanded_BJS_2012_BJ_CX_K036-1-2-FINAL.pdf Shelf Number: 135656 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime HotspotsCrime PreventionEvidence-Based PracticesPolice PatrolStop and SearchViolent Crime |
Author: Nan, Jiang Title: A Crime Pattern Analysis of the Illegal Ivory Trade in China Summary: The illegal ivory trade fuels illegal elephant poaching in both Africa and Asia. The illegal ivory trade in China is considered a key threat to the survival of the elephant species: since 2009, China has become the largest illegal ivory market in the world. Although China has uncovered a great number of cases of illegal ivory trade with the seizure of illegal ivory in the past decade, this trade is still growing. A deeper understanding of the nature and patterns of illegal ivory trade through an analysis of ivory seizure data should improve the efficiency of efforts to prevent the illegal ivory trade in China. This paper analyses data on 106 seizures of illegal ivory that was collected from Chinese news reports between 1999 and 2014, with a particular focus on its frequency and illegal trade 'hotspot' locations in China. The analysis found three illegal ivory trade cycles (2001-2005, 2006-2010, and 2011-2014) and four hotspots. Preventing the illegal ivory trade will require more international cooperation and coordination between China and other countries. Details: Acton, ACT, AUS: Transnational Environmental Crime Project, Australian National University, 2015. 17p. Source: Internet Research: TEC Project Working Paper 1/2015: Accessed October 19, 2015 at: http://ips.cap.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/IPS/IR/TEC/TEC%20Working%20Paper%201-2015.pdf Year: 2015 Country: China URL: http://ips.cap.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/IPS/IR/TEC/TEC%20Working%20Paper%201-2015.pdf Shelf Number: 136999 Keywords: Animal PoachingCrime AnalysisCrime HotspotsElephantsIllegal TradeIvoryWildlife CrimeWildlife Trade |
Author: Harrell, Kim Title: The Predictive Accuracy of Hotspot Mapping of Robbery over Time and Space Summary: Police forces use hotspot mapping to provide a targeted approach to resource allocation, ensuring police officers are despatched to areas of high crime where their presence will have the most impact. Hotspot intelligence products are reliant on crime data sourced from police databases, and positional errors in this data will have an impact on the accuracy of the hotspot maps produced. The location of crime hotspots varies across both space and time. Despite this the use of temporal information is still rare because of the difficulties in pinpointing crime to an exact point in time, though crimes involving attended property provide the opportunity to record time more accurately. This research aimed to evaluate both the impact positional errors and the addition of temporal information have on the predictive accuracy of hotspot mapping of crime that inherently occurs in outdoor or public places through the utilisation of robbery data. Using robbery data recorded during a 24 month period (1st April 2011 - 31st March 2013) in the West Midlands Police Local Policing Unit of Birmingham South, the number and magnitude of positional errors present in the raw data was measured based on the Euclidean distance between recorded and actual locations of robbery offences. Positional errors ranging between 1 - 3766 metres were responsible for the suppression of a number of high intensity hotspots in the study area, and only 31% of all robberies had been allocated to the correct geographical location. To determine the influence of temporal information a mid-point measurement date was employed, and the ability of the retrospective robbery hotspots to predict the location of prospective robbery events measured, based on police shift periods, days of the week and spatial data alone. The results suggest that shift periods provide the best prospect for police forces utilising temporal information to improve the predictive ability of hotspot maps. Care needs to be taken to select a large enough dataset that will ensure sufficient clustering of crime points, and further research could be extended to incorporate different crime types. Details: Manchester, UK: University of Salford, Manchester, 2014. 159p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed November 14, 2015 Year: 2014 Country: United Kingdom URL: Shelf Number: 137769 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime ClustersCrime ForecastingCrime HotspotsCrime MappingRobbery |
Author: Ueberall, Stephanie Title: Assessing New York City's Youth Gun Violence Crisis: Crews. Volume 2: CompStat for Violence Prevention Programs Summary: Although there have been significant recent investments by policymakers and funders - ranging from organizing task forces and work groups, to deploying new law enforcement strategies, to implementing programmatic interventions - New York City's ability to fully understand and diagnose its crew problem is hindered by a lack of data and coordination. While the NYPD collects data on crew members and related criminal activity, law enforcement data are typically insufficient to inform comprehensive responses because it is collected for the purpose of informing suppression and investigation strategies. At the same time, community-based organizations collect a range of data about the underlying needs of the individuals involved, but often lack the capacity to analyze and communicate these data to inform policy and programming decisions. Further, the City lacks a collaborative effort among stakeholders dedicated to addressing this problem. Preventing crew violence cannot be accomplished by a single agency or organization. Effective solutions require the combination of insight, hard work, and dedication from a wide variety of organizations and stakeholders. New York City should immediately mobilize stakeholders to take steps toward developing a comprehensive strategy to address the city's crew violence problem. Details: New York: Citizens Crime Commission of New York City, 2015. 23p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed January 27, 2016 at: http://www.nycrimecommission.org/pdfs/CCC-Crews-Vol2-Compstat.pdf Year: 2015 Country: United States URL: http://www.nycrimecommission.org/pdfs/CCC-Crews-Vol2-Compstat.pdf Shelf Number: 137682 Keywords: CompstatCrime AnalysisGang Violence Gangs Gun Violence Gun-Related Violence Violence CrimeViolent CrimeYouth Violence |
Author: Williams, Simon Alan Title: Do Visits or Time Spent in Hot Spots Patrol Matter Most? A randomised control trial in the West Midlands Police Summary: We are now in an era of policing where public expectation is greater than ever and it is only right that we are held responsible for our commitment to service our communities and protect them from harm (Foulkes, 2014). Set this against the fact that UK Policing and, in particular the West Midlands Police, are facing austerity unlike that seen by any previous generation of policing and as a result have an ever smaller workforce it is paramount that we prioritise demand reduction and tightly focus resources in an evidence based manner. This experiment is set against the backdrop of targeted place based demand reduction implementation across the West Midlands Police force area in an unprecedented time of austerity and uncertainty for those charged with delivering patrol; Neighbourhood Police Constables and Police Community Support Officers, both of which are an endangered species. This paper reports on a practitioner led randomised control trial that took place in the West Midlands Police during the summer of 2015. The main objective of this study was to assess if shorter and more frequent patrols (9 units of 5 minute patrols per day) in hot spots reduced crime and anti-social behaviour more than less frequent longer patrols (3 units of 15 minute patrols per day). The second objective of this study was to capture officers patrol outputs in order to examine which activities, if any, are high or low in frequency; do these outputs matter as much as providing visible capable guardianship? An experiment was designed in which 7 hot spots were randomly allocated to one or other patrol mode for a period of 150 days between June and November 2015. Patrol visits were tracked using patrolling officers' personal issue G.P.S (global positioning system) 'Airwave' radios where patrol information was fed back and officers help to account for the number of patrols conducted. Although this research took place over 150 days the results presented are based on 100 days of patrol as a result of a breakdown in 'geo-fencing' software during the last 50 days. Fewer units of longer duration are associated with greater crime falls, indicating that they are more effective than more frequent shorter patrols. The findings from this experiment confirm Koper's (1995) finding that longer units of 10-15 minutes duration are more effective. Additionally activity analysis of police constable and police community support officers overwhelmingly indicates that the highest frequency outputs, accounting for nearly 90% of all activity during 15 minute patrol days, do not require police powers (i.e. Community engagement and visits to high demand crime and ASB micro-locations within hot spots). Details: Cambridge, UK: Fitzwilliam College, Cambridge University, 2015. 89p. Source: Internet Resource: Thesis: Accessed April 15, 2016 at: http://www.crim.cam.ac.uk/alumni/theses/Simon%20Williams.pdf Year: 2015 Country: United Kingdom URL: http://www.crim.cam.ac.uk/alumni/theses/Simon%20Williams.pdf Shelf Number: 138683 Keywords: Crime AnalysisHot Spots PolicingPolice EffectivenessPolice Patrol |
Author: Warner, Todd C. Title: Mapping Mobility of Individuals Arrested for Misdemeanors in New York City, 2006-2014 Summary: This study, Mapping Mobility of Individuals Arrested for Misdemeanors in New York City, 2006-2014, aims to inform the NYPD, other criminal justice agencies, social service providers, and community organizations on the geographical allocation of resources for better law enforcement, crime prevention, and community supervision. Key findings from the report are as follows. -In 2014, almost half (48.5 percent) of all individuals arrested for a misdemeanor were arrested outside of their home precinct. Furthermore, if an individual was arrested outside of their home precinct, the arrest most often occurred in an adjacent precinct. -In 2014, almost half (44.6 percent) of all individuals arrested for a misdemeanor in Manhattan did not live in that borough. For other boroughs, individuals arrested there were much more likely to live in that borough: the Bronx (80.8 percent), Brooklyn (83.0 percent), Queens (73.3 percent), and Staten Island (87.0 percent). -In 2014, among home precinct arrests, the most frequent charges were crimes against a person (24.5 percent) and offenses related to marijuana (16.8 percent). -In 2014, of arrests that occurred outside the home precinct, the most frequent charges were property and theft-related (17.7 percent) and vehicle and driving-related (17.2 percent). Details: New York: John Jay College of Criminal Justice, 2016. 116p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed June 8, 2016 at: http://johnjay.jjay.cuny.edu/report/MobilitymobilityReport.pdf Year: 2016 Country: United States URL: http://johnjay.jjay.cuny.edu/report/MobilitymobilityReport.pdf Shelf Number: 139317 Keywords: Arrest RatesArrestsCrime AnalysisCrime MappingCrime RatesMisdemeanors |
Author: Sorg, Evan T. Title: An Ex Post Facto Evaluation of the Philadelphia GunStat Model Summary: In January of 2012, Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter outlined the crime fighting measures that his administration would pursue during his second term as mayor. Included was a plan to introduce a multi-agency crime reduction program, which Philadelphia Police Commissioner Charles Ramsey and District Attorney Seth Williams would co-chair, called GunStat. GunStat was described as a collaborative effort to reduce gun violence through (1) identifying locations with a high incidence of violent crime, (2) pinpointing violent offenders responsible for these crimes, (3) focusing on arresting and prosecuting these offenders for crimes committed at these places, and (4) enhanced monitoring of offenders on probation and parole who are living and/or offending within these locations. In effect, GunStat was designed to target the right people (prolific, violent known offenders) at the right places (hot spots of violent crime). This dissertation is an in-depth, ex post facto evaluation of Philadelphia's GunStat model as implemented over two phases and two years. It involved both a quasi-experimental research design which employed propensity score matching methods to generate comparisons, and a process-evaluation where several themes, including program implementation, were explored. The results here suggest that GunStat did not reduce crime relative to comparison locations. However, the qualitative data highlighted the importance of informal inter-agency networks that were developed during the course of the intervention, and suggested that GunStat put future collaborations on a solid footing. The implications for criminal justice policy, theory and evaluation design are discussed. Details: Philadelphia: Temple University, 2015. 258p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed June 8, 2016 at: http://cdm2458-01.cdmhost.com/cdm/ref/collection/p245801coll10/id/349592 Year: 2015 Country: United States URL: http://cdm2458-01.cdmhost.com/cdm/ref/collection/p245801coll10/id/349592 Shelf Number: 139323 Keywords: Crime AnalysisGun ViolenceGun-Related ViolenceHot Spots PolicingViolent Offenders |
Author: Engel, Robin S. Title: Cincinnati Police Department 15-Minute Hotspot Policing Experiment Summary: Hotspot policing is an intensified, intermittent patrol in specified crime clusters. This approach is not a constant, security guard-style presence, but rather approximates a crackdown-backoff approach where police are present at a hotspot for an intermittent yet brief period of time; typically fifteen minutes every two hours (see Koper, 1995 for more detail). Importantly, a sizable body of experimental research on hotspots policing led the National Research Council (NRC) Committee to Review Research on Police Policy and Practices (2004, p. 250) to conclude that studies of "focused police resources on crime hotspots provided the strongest collective evidence of police effectiveness that is now available." In an effort to promote evidence based practices to address specific types of crime problems, the Cincinnati Police Department (CPD) partnered with researchers from the Institute of Crime Sciences (ICS) at the University of Cincinnati. The CPD has been using crime analysis for deployment purposes to address serious, violent, and persistent street crimes since 2007. The purpose of the CPD's 15-Minute Hotspot Patrol Experiment was to further reduce the likelihood of victimization associated in high-risk areas throughout the city. The CPD was interested in implementing a hotspot policing experiment as a way to police more efficiently and to potentially build upon data-driven policing approaches already being used in the department (e.g., Statistical and Tactical Analytic Review for Solutions (STARS) is an oversight mechanism used to enhance strategic deployment for crime reduction). Of particular interest to CPD administrators was the ability to determine whether different types of policing practices within hotspot locations could lead to discernible differences in crime incidents. To identify Cincinnati's crime hotspots, Uniform Crime Report (UCR) Part I crime data collected by the CPD, ranging from November 2010 - November 2012 (N=48,568) were geocoded in ArcGIS and merged with Cincinnati street segments (N=13,550). This data merger provided information regarding how many serious crimes were committed on individual street segments within the city. Recent studies have indicated that it is important to focus on crime trends at micro-units of analysis due to street-to-street variability in crime patterns (Groff, Weisburd, & Yang, 2010). As a result, the most recent hotspot experiments focus police efforts at these micro-places, including individual street segments, to address patterns in crime variability by place and focus police resources more efficiently (Telep et al., 2012). To be consistent with these most recent research developments, the Cincinnati strategy focused police attention at specific street segments. Given the CPD's focus on reducing violence, a weighting system was designed where violent crimes were weighted proportionally more than property crimes based on their level of seriousness. Using this weighting system, crime counts for each street segment were calculated. When determining whether a street segment was considered "hot," both persistent and emerging crime trends were identified. A persistent hotspot was one identified based on reported crimes over the past three years, while an emerging hotspot was one identified based only on reported crimes over the last 12 months (Jan 1 - Dec 31, 2012). After determining hot street segments based on the process above, CPD District Commanders were consulted to verify if the selected street segments were appropriate hotspots based on their direct experiences. Ultimately, 54 individual street segments were identified for inclusion in the experiment. Each identified hot street segment was then individually paired with another hot street segment (with a similar amount and type of crime), creating 27 matched hotspot pairs. These 27 matched hotspot pairs were then randomly assigned to either treatment or control conditions. Note, that a street was considered a "treated street segment" if it received additional patrols. A "non-treated street segment" was a street that was matched to a treated street segment but did not receive additional patrols. Those assigned to treatment were further randomly assigned to one of three types of treatments: 1) stationary - sit in parked patrol car, 2) stationary with lights - sit in parked patrol car with emergency lights activated, or 3) proactive - park car and walk. Each crime hotspot selected for treatment received an additional "dose" of directed patrol seven times per day. Specifically, these treatment conditions were applied on the same streets for 15 minutes every two hours, during the hours of 12:00 pm - 2:00 am for a 5-month period. The matched control street segments were patrolled as they normally would be, absent the experiment. In the most general terms, we determine the impact of the additional patrols in three ways. Analysis 1 compares the treated street segments directly to their non-treated matched street segments during the intervention period (Feb 1- Jun 30, 2013). Analysis 2 compares the crimes that occurred on the treated street segments during the intervention period to the average number of crimes occurring during the seasonal pre-intervention period on those same treated street segments. Then the crimes that occurred on the non-treated street segments during the intervention period are compared to the number of crimes on those same non-treated street segments during the seasonal pre-intervention period. These differences are ultimately compared to one another to determine an overall effect. Analysis 3 compares the differences within the treated street segments by the type of treatment: stationary, lights, or foot. Details: Cincinnati: Institute of Crime Science, University of Cincinnati, 2014. 28p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed June 11, 2016 at: https://ext.dps.state.oh.us/OCCS/Pages/Public/Reports/ICS_CPD%2015%20Minute%20Hotspot%20Policing%20Experiment_FINAL.pdf Year: 2014 Country: United States URL: https://ext.dps.state.oh.us/OCCS/Pages/Public/Reports/ICS_CPD%2015%20Minute%20Hotspot%20Policing%20Experiment_FINAL.pdf Shelf Number: 139391 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime ClustersEvidence-Based PracticesHotspot PolicingPolice Patrol |
Author: Haberman, Cory P. Title: COPS on Dots Doing What? The Differential Effects of Police Enforcement Actions in Hot Spots Summary: Although hot spots policing has become one of the most promising policing strategies, the empirical evidence on the effectiveness of hot spots policing does not suggest what police should be doing in crime hot spots. To date - police enforcement actions, pedestrian investigations, traffic enforcement, and arrests - still dominate American policing. Yet empirical studies of these actions have not: focused on micro-geographic areas, employed multiple measures of police enforcement actions, or empirically compared the effectiveness of different enforcement actions. Given these gaps in the literature, a mixed-methods study sought to answer four research questions. (1) Do four police enforcement actions focused on offenders or potential offenders reduce violent crime in hot spots? The four police enforcement actions examined were pedestrian investigations, traffic enforcement events, quality of life arrests, and violent crime arrests. (2) Are any one of these four police enforcement actions more effective than the others? (3) When police commanders allocate resources to crime hot spots, what do police commanders think they are doing? (4) What are police commanders rationales for what they do in crime hot spots? The first two questions were answered using official data from the Philadelphia Police Department. A purposive sample of 169 high crime street blocks and intersections was drawn and longitudinal data analyses examined the effects of police enforcement actions on monthly violent crime counts from 2009 to 2013 (n = 10,140). Wald Tests were used to test for the differential effectiveness of the four enforcement actions. Qualitative methods answered the remaining two research questions. Field observations of crime strategy meetings (May, 2014 to August, 2014) and interviews with police commanders (November, 2014 to February, 2015) were conducted. The quantitative results found total enforcement and pedestrian stop levels in the previous or same month linked to higher expected monthly violent crime counts. The positive effect of pedestrian stops was significantly larger than the effects of traffic enforcement or quality of life arrests. Despite the positive relationship between police enforcement and violent crime, the qualitative results provided insight into what police commanders thought they were doing in crime hot spots. Three themes emerged from the qualitative data: (1) "locking down" crime hot spots, (2) disrupting high risk offenders, and (3) educating potential victims. Police commanders rationalized these beliefs with four explanations of their effectiveness: (1) making offenders "think twice", (2) denying potential offenders and victims certain places in order to reduce crime opportunities, (3) getting high risk offenders "off the street", and (4) target hardening. Drawing on theorizing for how police enforcement actions might actually link to higher levels of crime (Grabosky, 1996) and methodological concerns raised by Taylor (2015), five possible explanations for the observed positive relationships among police enforcement actions and violent crime are provided: (1) an anticipatory effect, (2) over-deterrence, (3) escalation, (4) unintended enticement and self-fulfilling prophecies, and (5) temporal scaling. The anticipatory effect explanation centers on the police correctly anticipating outbreaks of violent crime but violent crime still not being reduced due to (1) dosage, (2) the overuse of enforcement, (3) police legitimacy, (4) temporal displacement or two components the study's design (5) imprecise measurement and (6) lack of a proper counterfactual. Additionally, police enforcement actions may inadvertently reduce guardianship though overdeterrence, escalate competition among rival offenders, or inform potential offenders of crimes they could or "should" be committing. Finally, the study's temporal scale (i.e., months) may not be fine enough to capture the actual cycling of how increased enforcement actions produce lower violent crime levels. The qualitative data are drawn upon to possibly support these explanations. Additionally, the pros and cons of police commanders' perspectives on the use and effectiveness of enforcement actions are discussed in context of the criminological theory and crime control literatures. Finally, the results are discussed in terms of their implications for crime control theory and policy. Details: Philadelphia: Temple University, 2015. 310p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed June 28, 2016 at: http://digital.library.temple.edu/cdm/ref/collection/p245801coll10/id/338119 Year: 2015 Country: United States URL: http://digital.library.temple.edu/cdm/ref/collection/p245801coll10/id/338119 Shelf Number: 139506 Keywords: Crime AnalysisHot SpotsPolice LegitimacyPolice ResponsePolicing Hot SpotsTarget HardeningViolent Crime |
Author: Gunnell, Daniel Title: Social Network Analysis of an Urban Street Gang Using Police Intelligence Data Summary: As part of the Home Office's Ending Gang and Youth Violence programme a commitment was made to help police forces better understand their local gang issues (HM Government, 2013). This research aims to meet this commitment by testing the use of social network analysis using police intelligence data, as a tool to more systematically understand gangs and to help direct law enforcement activities. As such, the report serves as one example of how social network analysis can be used, but the approach could also be applied to other types of crime and disorder to explore the networks of people involved (such as those connected to acquisitive crime or sexual abuse). The research was undertaken in partnership with Great Manchester Police and addresses two research questions: 1. What can social network analysis tell us about gangs? 2. How useful are the social network analysis outputs for the police? For this, five individuals living in Manchester and identified as having gang links were chosen as the starting point for the network analysis. Further details about how to conduct social network analysis can be found in the 'How to guide' published as an annex to this report. Details: London: Home Office, 2016. 33p. Source: Internet Resource: Research Report 89: Accessed July 25, 2016 at: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/491578/horr89.pdf Year: 2016 Country: United Kingdom URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/491578/horr89.pdf Shelf Number: 139825 Keywords: Crime AnalysisPolice IntelligenceSocial NetworksStreet GangsYouth Gangs |
Author: Ratcliffe, Jerry H. Title: Predictive Modeling Combining Short and Long-Term Crime Risk Potential: Final Report Summary: This research team (Temple University and industry partner Azavea) developed a technology capable of predicting future crime risk potential based on a number of grounded theoretical approaches to understanding localized spatial crime patterns. With regard to long-term crime risk changes, a stable crime niche model assumes that communities occupy crime niches in a broader jurisdiction, niches that are largely stable from year to year and have self-maintaining properties. Thus crime in one year may be predicted best by crime from the previous year. Alternatively, a structural model assumes that key current demographic conditions, such as socioeconomic status and racial composition, generally shape crime levels. Finally, a dynamic ecological and structural model assumes, net of the connections between current crime and demographic structure, that current structural conditions influence future long term changes in crime for a year in the future. The focus here is on ecological crime discontinuities, with priority assigned to demographic factors shaping such crime shifts over time. At the same time, ecological crime continuities also are present to a degree, linking current and future crime levels. These models were compared in the research study. The research team also examined what role near-repeat crime events, indicative of a short-term change in relative risk, have in modifying this relationship. Near repeats occur when a crime influences the likelihood of another crime within a narrow space and time window after the originator event. In particular, the 'boost' hypothesis (also known as 'event dependency') suggests that subsequent events are conditional on the originator event because (for example) the same offender returns to the area, or there is a retaliatory event. Using 2009 and 2010 reported crime for the City of Philadelphia, PA (USA) we identified that the demographics-plus-crime was the most parsimonious and accurate for robbery, burglary, aggravated assault, and vehicle theft when predicted from year-to-year in small geographic areas of 500 feet by 500 feet grid cells. Lower volume crime types (homicide and rape) were predicted as well as, or better, by the demographics-only model. We then added an event-dependency risk surface to the long-term crime risk predictions and estimated what impact this near repeat surface played in changing the accuracy and parsimony of the crime prediction. The best combination of accuracy and model parsimony was estimated by comparing differences in Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) values. Near repeat patterns were estimated for two week periods across spatial bands of 250 feet width. These near repeat patterns were translated to a mapped risk surface and added to the long-term risk prediction surfaces. In this part of the study, 2012 crime was used to predict 2013 crime in the City of Philadelphia for two of the most frequent types of part 1 crime: robbery and burglary. With repeated examination of two-week predictions across 500 foot square grid cells, the strongest BIC value was identified with a model that combines crime from the previous year, change in demographic structure, and an adjustment for the near repeat phenomenon. Mixed effects logit models suggest that long-term (year-on-year) crime and demographic changes are more influential in this model than near repeats. Theoretically, this means that long term ecological crime continuities, long term crime discontinuities arising from stratification patterns in class and race, and near-term crime continuities in time and space all shape the two week, micro-scale predictions. In summary, a model combining community structural characteristics, crime counts from the previous year, and an estimate of near repeat activity generated the best results overall. This tells us that small scale, short term crime occurrences reflect a complex mix of near-term crime continuities, ecological crime continuities, and ecological structure which generates ecological crime discontinuities forward in time. The industry partner, Azavea, has created a free software program (PROVE) to perform these calculations for state and municipal police departments. Details: Philadelphia: Temple University, Center for Security and Crime Science, 2016. 131p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed July 26, 2016 at: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/249934.pdf Year: 2016 Country: United States URL: https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/249934.pdf Shelf Number: 139857 Keywords: Computer TechnologyCrime AnalysisCrime Prediction |
Author: Lehmann, Robert J.B. Title: Using Crime Scene Behavior for Risk Assessment in Sexual Offenders Summary: Sexual offending represents an important judicial, clinical, and policy issue and tends to invoke considerable public concern. Recent meta-analytic research indicates that about 8% of men and 20% of women had suffered some form of sexual abuse prior to the age of 18 (Pereda, Guilera, Forns, & Gomez-Benito, 2009). Tjaden and Thoennes (2006) report a lifetime prevalence of rape in men of about 3% and in women of about 18%. Accordingly, courts, police, and forensic practitioners invest considerable resources in predicting and preventing sexual offending by known sexual offenders. In general, those involved in assessing an offender's risk for future sexual offending seek to collect diverse information about the offender and the offenses committed to inform their decisions. Furthermore, the importance of including crime scene information into forensic risk assessment (referred to as "risk assessment" from hereon) is emphasized throughout the literature (e.g., Beech, Fisher, & Thornton, 2003; West, 2000). In Germany, the analysis of crime scene behavior is an essential part of clinical-idiographic risk assessment (Rasch, 1999). Expert witnesses are implicitly required by law to explain an offender's risk by providing evidence from their crime scene behavior. Indeed, the courts have placed increasing demand on the analysis of an offender's crime scene behavior to date. Moreover, the analysis of an offender's criminal behavior following a clinical-idiographic approach (Dahle, 2005) is part of the minimum standards of risk assessment in Germany (Boetticher et al., 2007). In spite of the theoretical relevance of crime scene analysis (CSA) for risk assessment, there is little empirical evidence to support what crime scene behavior is most relevant for risk assessment. Therefore, the empirical analysis of the predictive accuracy of crime scene behaviors for the assessment of future sexual offending is needed. For example, whereas frequently used actuarial risk assessment methods rely heavily on the criminal history of an offender with only limited and a-theoretical inclusion of crime scene related variables, CSA could also be applied in cases where offenders have no such criminal history (i.e., first-time offenders) or where the criminal history is simply unknown (e.g., foreign offender). Furthermore, according to German regulations, risk assessment can only be completed using a clinical-idiographic risk assessment approach, which pays particular attention to the individual circumstances and characteristics (e.g., crime scene information) of a particular case. To provide for a scientific and controllable framework as well as for transparency, it is essential to structure the clinical-idiographic assessment content-wise and to follow specific methodological guidelines. In terms of the theoretical and empirical basis for the process of analyzing the crime scene behavior evaluators have to draw on, for example, general theories of criminality and social psychology or dated (non-validated) offender typologies. So far, there are no explicit guidelines or risk assessment instruments assisting the evaluator to structure the CSA or indicating what is the relevant information to include. Therefore, the possibilities for quality control (e.g., comprehensiveness, completeness) of the CSA are limited. To diagnose deviant sexual preferences diagnosticians often rely on the self-report assessment of the patients themselves. However, given the elevated risk associated with a diagnosis of a sexual paraphilia, patients may have a tendency for dissimulation. To overcome this problem researchers have recently suggested the use of behavioral indicators derived from a person's criminal history as a complementary method for diagnosing sexual paraphilia (Nitschke, Mokros, Osterheider, & Marshall, 2012). In addition to being a useful complement for the clinical diagnosis of sexual paraphilia, crime scene behavior could generally provide potentially rich information about other enduring offender propensities as well. These propensities (e.g., whether a sexual offense was motivated by general antisocial behavior or sexualized aggression) could have important implications for risk assessment, offender treatment, and police investigations. They could help therapists to identify the important clinical phenomena evident in the offense behavior or could inform risk assessment for police investigations in cases where the offender has yet to be identified (e.g., behavioral investigative advice). Altogether, crime scene information is an important and understudied factor that might be a valid contribution to risk assessment as well as for other applied contexts (e.g., the delivery of treatment services). Crime scene information is valuable as it is a more objective measure of what the offender actually did, and is not dependent on self-report. Also, it should commonly be available and easily assessable by the analysis of victim statements, police reports, and court decisions. However, to date no systematic and theory-based empirical evaluation is available that tries to identify the relevant crime scene information to be included into a comprehensive risk assessment. Details: Berlin: Freie Universitat Berlin, 2014. 83p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed September 28, 2016 at: http://www.diss.fu-berlin.de/diss/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/FUDISS_derivate_000000015568/Lehmann.Robert.diss.pdf Year: 2014 Country: Germany URL: http://www.diss.fu-berlin.de/diss/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/FUDISS_derivate_000000015568/Lehmann.Robert.diss.pdf Shelf Number: 146119 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime ScenesCriminal InvestigationRisk AssessmentSex Offenders |
Author: Laros, Jeroen F.J. Title: Metrics and Visualisation for Crime Analysis and Genomics Summary: Informally speaking, Data Mining [67] is the process of extracting previously unknown and interesting patterns from data. In general this is accomplished using different techniques, each shedding light on different angles of the data. Due to the explosion of data and the development of processing power, Data Mining has become more and more important in data analysis. It can be viewed as a subdomain of Artificial Intelligence (AI [61]), with a large statistical component [4, 28]. Amongst the patterns that can be found by the usage of Data Mining techniques, we can identify Associations. Examples of this can be found in market basket analysis. One of the (trivial) examples would be that tobacco and cigarette paper are often sold together. A more intricate example is that certain types of tobacco (light, medium, heavy) are correlated with different types of cigarette paper. This so-called Association Mining is an important branch of Data Mining. Other patterns that are frequently sought are Sequential patterns. Sequential patterns are patterns in sets of (time)sequences. These patterns can be used to identify trends and to anticipate behaviour of individuals. Associations and Sequential patterns will play a major role in this thesis. Once patterns have been identified, we often need a visualisation of them to make the discovered information insightful. This visualisation can be in the form of graphs, charts and pictures or even interactive simulations. Data Mining is commonly used in application domains such as marketing and fraud detection, but recently the focus also shifts towards other (more delicate) application domains, like pharmaceutics and law enforcement. In this thesis we focus on the application domains law enforcement and sequence analysis. In law enforcement, we have all the prerequisites needed for Data Mining: a plethora of data, lots of categories, temporal aspects and more. There is, however, a reluctance when it comes to using the outcome of an analysis. When used with care, Data Mining can be a valuable tool in law enforcement. It is not unthinkable, for example, that results obtained by Data Mining techniques can be used when a criminal is arrested. Based on patterns, this particular criminal could have a higher risk of carrying a weapon, or an syringe, for example. In law enforcement, this kind of information is called tactical data. After the Data Mining step, statistics is usually employed to see how significant the found patterns are. In most cases, this can be done with standard statistics. When dealing with temporal sequences though, and lots of missing or uncertain data, this becomes exceedingly harder. Details: Leiden: University of Leiden, 2009. Source: Internet Resource: Thesis: Accessed October 13, 2016 at: https://openaccess.leidenuniv.nl/bitstream/handle/1887/14533/thesis.pdf?sequence=2 Year: 2009 Country: International URL: https://openaccess.leidenuniv.nl/bitstream/handle/1887/14533/thesis.pdf?sequence=2 Shelf Number: 144935 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCriminal IntelligenceData MiningDNA |
Author: di Bella, Enrico Title: Introducing Spatial Configuration in Crime Count Models Summary: The main techniques used for quantitative analyses of urban crime can generally be divided into three categories: descriptive studies of crime dispersion over a specific urban area without any substantial statistical modeling, traditional statistical spatial models whose normality assumptions do not hold and count models which do not take into account the spatial configuration of the urban layouts. In this work we discuss how configurational components can be introduced in the count data modeling of crime illustrating our point with a case study centered on a highly populated area of the City of Genoa on three crime typologies. The statistical modeling of crime at street level is performed using count models which include the usual economic and socio-demographic variables, complemented with a set of configurational variables, built using the techniques of Space Syntax Analysis, in order to include, among the regressors, the graph complexity of the urban structure. The configurational variables included in this model are statistically significant, consistently with the criminological theories stating that the urban layout has a role in crime dispersion over a city and their use among the set of regressors, substantially improves the overall goodness of fit of the models. The configurational variables herein introduced add an implicit spatial correlation structure of crime to the models and give new and useful information to Municipalities to interpret how crime patterns relate to the urban layout and how to intervene through the means of urban planning to reduce or prevent crime. Details: Genoa: Universit degli Studi di Genova, 2013. 53p. Source: Internet Resource: DEP Working Papers Series no.2 : Accessed October 14, 2016 at: http://www.dep.unige.it/RePEc/gea/wpaper/dwpo-2-jun2013.pdf Year: 2013 Country: Italy URL: http://www.dep.unige.it/RePEc/gea/wpaper/dwpo-2-jun2013.pdf Shelf Number: 144800 Keywords: CPTEDCrime AnalysisCrime PreventionDesign Against CrimeSpatial AnalysisUrban Areas |
Author: Jackson, Mark Title: Murder Concentration and Distribution Patterns in London: An Exploratory Analysis of Ten Years of Data Summary: The phenomenon of how the volume of crime varies from place to place has received significant focus over the last four decades. Previous research has identified that crime is not randomly distributed across places but clusters in areas sometimes called hot spots. This research analyses 10 years of homicide patterns across London from Local Authority Borough level down to small local neighbourhood level. Through the use of geo-coding technology to map homicide locations and victims' and offenders' home addresses, frequency analysis is conducted down to a Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) level. This provides a structure to segment London into 4761 neighbourhoods. The findings of this research are that 74% of London's LSOAs do not have a single homicide over the 10 year period. Additionally it identifies that homicide in London is concentrated in a small number of local neighbourhood locations rather than randomly spread across the whole city. These concentrations account for only 6% of neighbourhoods but contribute 42% of the homicide locations, over the 10 year period. This methodology is also applied to specific methods of homicide, e.g. domestic violence, where similar patterns of concentrations of homicides are identified. Geographical analysis of victims and perpetrators of homicide identifies that 50% of perpetrators reside within one mile of the homicide offence location. Additionally 52% of perpetrators' home addresses are clustered within 9% of LSOAs. This research will contribute to the criminological evidence-base, having both operational implications, such as the focus of policing patrol strategy, and policy implications for a significant number of agencies in how they assess the prioritisation of resources, particularly within the current difficult fiscal climate. Details: Cambridge, UK: Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, 2010. 100p. Source: Internet Resource: Thesis: Accessed October 17, 2016 at: http://www.crim.cam.ac.uk/alumni/theses/Jackson,%20M.pdf Year: 2010 Country: United Kingdom URL: http://www.crim.cam.ac.uk/alumni/theses/Jackson,%20M.pdf Shelf Number: 145099 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime and PlaceCrime Hot SpotsCrime PatternsHomicidesHot Spots |
Author: Meyer, William Debard Title: Analyzing Crime on Street Networks: A Comparison of Network and Euclidean Voronoi Methods Summary: he analysis of the uneven spatial distribution of crime has been an important area of research investigation and policy analysis for the past several decades. These analyses typically use spatial analytical methods that are based on the assumption of Euclidean (straight-line) distance. However, crime like most social activity is often mediated by the built environment, such as along a street or within a multi-story building. Thus, analyzing spatial patterns of crime with only straight-line Euclidean distance measurement ignores this intervening built landscape and may very possibly introduce error into the ensuing result. The purpose of this research is to compare and contrast the differences in analytical results for spatial analysis techniques that have the capability to use either Euclidean or network distance. Voronoi diagrams which can be implemented utilizing either Euclidean distance or network distance (distance measured along a street) offer a means for performing this comparison. Utilizing Voronoi diagram implementations with Euclidean distance and network distance this thesis will examine the spatial distribution of gun-inflicted homicide locations and the similarity/differences between the results of their application with the aim of informing the spatial analysis of street located homicide. Details: Urbana-Champaign: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2010. 75p. Source: Internet Resource: Thesis: Accessed October 21, 2016 at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/47563673_Analyzing_Crime_on_Street_Networks_A_Comparison_of_Network_and_Euclidean_Voronoi_Methods Year: 2010 Country: United States URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/47563673_Analyzing_Crime_on_Street_Networks_A_Comparison_of_Network_and_Euclidean_Voronoi_Methods Shelf Number: 131166 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime MappingCrime NetworksGun-Related ViolenceHomicidesSpatial Analysis |
Author: Ghosh, Arindam Title: The Geography of Crime in Rochester -- Patterns over Time (2005-2011) Summary: This paper provides maps of all FBI part 1 crimes which were reported in Rochester, New York from 2005 through 2011. The goal of the paper is to examine the patterns of reported crime over a time and space within the City. The offense definitions used here are from the official measure of crime known as the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI) Uniform Crime Reports (UCR). The FBI’s UCR Program is a nationwide, cooperative statistical effort of law enforcement agencies across the country (nearly 18,000 of them) voluntarily reporting data on crimes brought to their attention. In this case, the data was obtained from the Rochester Police Department, which is collected by the New York State Division of Criminal Justice Services (NYSDCJS) and reported to the FBI. The data spanned a time period of over 7 years, from 2005-2011. This paper contains the crime density maps for the Part I crimes occurring in Rochester over the same time period. We will start with a warning to the reader. This paper contains a large number of maps and a smaller number of charts. For us, these are important as ways of displaying the data, but they have been important to our analytic processes as well. We have found them to be useful in guiding our own thoughts and discussions about the problem of crime in Rochester. We hope they are useful to others in both trying to understanding that problem and in addressing it. Even with this hope, however, we recognize that this is a lengthy set of maps and other data displays. So we want to start with a few general statements from the data that we think will summarize key points that may not be entirely obvious, and that we hope will tempt you to struggle through the rest of the paper. First, it is important to note the trends shown in the data. Reductions in crime are shown for five of the eight categories of Part 1 crimes including murder, rape, robbery, arson, motor vehicle theft and larceny. Levels for aggravated assault and generally flat while burglary levels show a slight upward trend. Taken together, these data show that over 127,000 part 1 crimes were reported in Rochester for the seven years from 2005 through 2011. An important point to be made, however, is that much of the information we get from official crime statistics, particularly when overall crime level or rate is discussed, is dominated by facts about larceny, the crime of lowest seriousness and highest frequency. In Rochester larceny (theft) accounts for nearly 60% of all Part 1 offenses. Combining crime number, then, can lead to confusion. For example, due to the way official crime measures are aggregated, crime index totals count each shoplifting the same as each murder. If you are not careful, such things can mask or distort the reality of crime as it is experienced within the community. Also, bear in mind that these are reported crimes, and as we know, there are many crimes which go unreported, so this does not tell is the whole story – only part of it. While serious violent crime is less frequent than the aggregated data may initially suggestwith the exception of rape, it is highly concentrated geographically and those concentrations persist over time. These are the most important facts about the distribution of serious crime. And, there are important implications to them. First and foremost, it should be clear that, across this community, people have very different experiences with crime in general, with the risk of becoming a victim in particular, and also with the criminal justice system as it responds to crime. We may live very different lives as a result. Recognizing that, it should also be apparent that seeing beyond the chasm that crime can create, in order to better understand one another, is both a difficult and important task. But there are also more specific implications of these crime patterns. They crystalize the community’s responsibility for addressing them. Their persistence demands action. That action can take many forms. It includes the work of individuals and organizations which seek to mitigate the pain implicit in these patterns, and to reduce or prevent violence. It also includes the focus and concentration of appropriate government resources, including the police. Their work is shaped by these patterns. The distribution of serious violence makes them a salient part of the lives of those most affected by crime. And, these facts make clear the great value to be found in strong relationships between the police and the community where crime is highest. Details: Rochester, NY: Center for Public Safety Initiatives, Rochester Institute of Technology, 2012. 28p. Source: Internet Resource: Working Paper, August 2012-10: Accessed December 15, 2016 at: http://www.rit.edu/cla/criminaljustice/sites/rit.edu.cla.criminaljustice/files/docs/WorkingPapers/2012/2012-10.pdf Year: 2012 Country: United States URL: http://www.rit.edu/cla/criminaljustice/sites/rit.edu.cla.criminaljustice/files/docs/WorkingPapers/2012/2012-10.pdf Shelf Number: 146163 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime PatternsGeographical AnalysisNeighborhoods and crime |
Author: Heim, Krista Title: Visualization and Modeling for Crime Data Indexed by Road Segments Summary: This research develops crime hotspot analysis and visualization methodology that use street segments as the basic study unit. This incorporates the distance between points along a polyline rather than the standard Euclidean distance and has some distinct advantages over past methods. For each crime, this method creates a weight according to its distance from each road segment of its surrounding block. To create the hotspot visualization map, crime counts are smoothed over road segments based on the distance to nearest segments and the angle at which nearest roads meet at intersections. Crime data from the City of Alexandria, VA Police Department and San Francisco, CA (available at data.sfgov.org) are considered here using a combination of conventional ArcGIS and R graphics. I assume that demographic variables related to crime in large areas are still relevant to crime rates at the local level and seek to make use of the most spatially detailed data accessible. Decennial demographic variables at the block level for 2010 from the U.S. Census are associated with road segments by assigning the available values to the surrounding segments of each block. These variables include age, gender, population, and housing for both locations. Variables also considered are police calls for service, housing prices, elevation and speed limits. I discuss/compare area crime counts with polyline crime counts using (zero-inflated) Poisson and Negative Binomial regression with crime-related covariates, as well as MCMC Poisson-Gamma Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) model in CrimeStat IV and a localized CAR model in R using distances between segments as weights. Conditional variable importance is measured using conditional random forest modeling to see which of the covariates are the most important predictors of crime and to decide which variables are the most appropriate to consider for visualization. Principal components are also used to create independent linear combinations of predictor variables. While most visualization approaches for street segments have emphasized one variable at a time, this research uses a 3 x 3 grid of maps using DPnet to highlight each grouping of road segments associated with classes based on two covariates. This multivariate visualization will allow us to explore multiple variables at a time and their patterns along a road network. Details: Fairfax, VA: George Mason University, 2014. 164p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed December 20, 2016 at: http://digilib.gmu.edu/jspui/bitstream/handle/1920/8991/Heim_gmu_0883E_10696.pdf?sequence=1 Year: 2014 Country: United States URL: http://digilib.gmu.edu/jspui/bitstream/handle/1920/8991/Heim_gmu_0883E_10696.pdf?sequence=1 Shelf Number: 147789 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime HotspotsGeographic Analysis Geographic Studies High Crime Areas |
Author: Ohm, Meit Title: Geographic Profiling: A scientific tool or merely a guessing game? Summary: Geographic profiling is considered as one of the most controversial and innovative technologies used in criminal investigations today. The accuracy of the methodology has become a popular topic amongst scholars and has caused a heated debate regarding the success of geographic profiling. This study seeks to evaluate if geographic profiling is a useful tool for the police. Thus the aims of this study are to examine if the methodology is a viable tool during investigations and further to establish to what extent geographic profiling has been successfully applied within the area of property crime, in particular burglary investigations. By conducting a systematic literature review and key informant interviews this study found that geographic profiling can be a very useful tool for analysts. Further the results showed that geographic profiling systems are not always more accurate than simpler methods, however simpler strategies are not necessarily as consistent as a computerised system. Moreover the results indicate that geographic profiling can be applied during burglary investigations, if done correctly and by a trained investigator. The study concludes that geographic profiling is more than just a guessing game and if applied appropriately it will most likely identify the offender. Lastly the results and shortcomings of this study, including the need for future research is discussed. Details: Malmo: Malmö högskola/Hälsa och samhälle, 2016. 35p. Source: Internet Resource: Thesis: Accessed February 4, 2017 at: https://dspace.mah.se/bitstream/handle/2043/20828/Bachelorthesis.MeitOhrn.pdf?sequence=2&isAllowed=y Year: 2016 Country: Sweden URL: https://dspace.mah.se/bitstream/handle/2043/20828/Bachelorthesis.MeitOhrn.pdf?sequence=2&isAllowed=y Shelf Number: 145873 Keywords: BurglaryCrime AnalysisCriminal InvestigationGeographic ProfilingGeographical Information Systems (GIS) |
Author: Peixoto, Betania Totino Title: Preventing Criminality: An Economic Evaluation of a Brazilian Program Summary: In this work we carried out an economic evaluation of Fica Vivo program in its pilot area, Morro das Pedras slum. Fica Vivo is the main program of prevention and control of criminality that is being carried in Brazil. This program was based on the CeaseFire Project proposed by the School of Public Health of the University of Illinois - Chicago in the nineties and that inspired several programs in other countries. The principal objective of the program is the reduction of homicides in areas of hot spots. Regarding homicides, in general, in Brazil, these hot spots occur in slums. The program combines preventive with repressive (police/ judicial) activities. This evaluation is done considering the pilot area of the program, Morro das Pedras slum, situated in Belo Horizonte city, Brazil. The impact of the program is estimated using a Double Difference Matching method applied to a panel data of police records between 2000 and 2006. The impact variable is the half-yearly homicide rate per one hundred thousand inhabitants. The costs were accounted based on accountability information sourced by the Social Defense Secretary and the State Police. The results show that the program reduces criminality, diminishing the homicide rate. Details: Unpublished paper, 2008. 27o, Source: Internet Resource: Accessed February 13, 2017 at: http://www.cedlas-er.org/sites/default/files/aux_files/peixoto.pdf Year: 2008 Country: Brazil URL: http://www.cedlas-er.org/sites/default/files/aux_files/peixoto.pdf Shelf Number: 147296 Keywords: Cost-Benefit AnalysisCrime AnalysisHomicidesHot SpotsSlumsSpatial AnalysisViolent Crime |
Author: Odinot, G. Title: Organised Cybercrime in the Netherlands Empirical findings and implications for law enforcement Summary: Summary This study seeks to explore the characteristics of cyber-organised crime (OC), and focuses on the criminal activities of cyber-OC groups, their modus operandi, the organisational structures, the 'profiles' of the involved offenders, and the characteristics of criminal investigation into these cases. For this purpose we will focus on the following research questions: 1.Is organised crime involved in cybercrime? What kind of cybercrime do organised crime groups commit? 2.How do organised crime groups use the Internet to commit 'traditional crimes'? 3.Does the Internet provide windows of opportunity for the development of new business ideas and for the identification and approaching of new targets? 4.Does the Internet lead to structural changes in organised crime? 5.Is cybercrime organised? How, why and when? 6.How does the criminal investigation of (organised) cybercrime work in practice and which best practices and challenges can be identified? Details: The Hague: Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek- en Documentatiecentrum, 2017. 84p. Source: Internet Resource: Cahier 2017-1: Accessed March 17, 2017 at: https://english.wodc.nl/binaries/Cahier%202017-1_Full%20text_tcm29-244615.pdf Year: 2017 Country: Netherlands URL: https://english.wodc.nl/binaries/Cahier%202017-1_Full%20text_tcm29-244615.pdf Shelf Number: 144484 Keywords: Computer Crime Crime AnalysisCriminal Investigation Cybercrime Internet Crimes Organized Crime |
Author: Wang, Chen Title: Which Dimension of Income Distribution Drives Crime? Evidence From the People's Republic of China Summary: Income distribution is perceived to affect crime (Becker 1968; Thurow 1971; Merlo 2003). Consequently, economists have been modeling crime-employing inequality indicators as one of the explanatory variables, yielding mixed results. This paper argues that income polarization rather than inequality should be taken into account in the context of crime analysis. Technically, in addition to income gaps as captured by inequality indicators, the recently developed polarization index of Duclos, Esteban, and Ray (2004) also measures social segregation, which implies immobility and alienation, both of which are closely related to social tensions and conflicts. Thus, this polarization index is expected to be a better variable in explaining crime. To substantiate our arguments, provincial panel data from the People's Republic of China (PRC) are used to model the crime–income distribution relationship. Income polarization is found to be positively and significantly associated with crime. When both income polarization and inequality indicators are included in the models, the former remains a positive and significant determinant while the latter becomes insignificant. Details: Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute, 2017. 22p. Source: Internet Resource: ADBI Working Paper Series no. 704: Accessed April 1, 2017 at: https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/236561/adbi-wp704.pdf Year: 2017 Country: China URL: https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/236561/adbi-wp704.pdf Shelf Number: 144690 Keywords: Crime AnalysisInequality and Crime Poverty Socioeconomic Conditions and Crime |
Author: de Brito, Charlotte Title: Will Providing Tracking Feedback on Hot Spot Patrols Affect the Amount of Patrol Dosage Delivered? A Level 4 Experiment Summary: Objectives Hot spots patrol is a police tactic shown time and time again to reduce crime, with a robust body of supporting evidence suggested. Less widely researched is how to ensure the police tasked with carrying out these patrols do as they have been asked. In this thesis, research will be presented which seeks to bridge this gap. Methods In a before-after experiment carried out over 4 weeks in August 2016 within British Transport Police (BTP), two sites assigned to treatment conditions (London Waterloo and London Euston) were provided feedback on dosage delivery - i.e., weekly reports showing the number of "hot spots visits" carried out the previous week by the PCs and PCSOs assigned to hot spot patrol. Two sites assigned to control conditions received no such information, but were still required to conduct hot spots patrols as business as usual. Results No overall statistically significant differences in terms of patrol dosage between the two treatment and two control sites were found, indicating that feedback in the form of a set of figures and graphs on the previous weeks' performance sent via email does not increase dosage. However, when the 2 treatment sites were analysed separately, substantial increases were found in patrol dosage at London Waterloo but no discernible effect at London Euston, compared to control conditions. These subgroup analyses are likely to be driven by varying leadership styles in the two treatment sites. Conclusions Patrol dosage feedback can be positively correlated with patrol dosage, however only when the leader responsible for those individuals is willing to act. In this experiment, there was no adverse consequence for poor patrol performance in the treatment sites, hence the threat can be deemed 'toothless'. Onus cannot be left on individuals to react to and improve on poor performance, and a feedback loop must be put in place to allow corrective action to be taken if an individual consistently fails to improve. Further research is recommended, testing treatment conditions which include an adverse consequence of poor performance, with a larger number of experimental sites. Details: Cambridge, UK: Fitzwilliam College, 2016. 75p. Source: Internet Resource: Thesis: Accessed April 10, 2017 at: http://www.crim.cam.ac.uk/alumni/theses/Charlotte%20de%20Brito.pdf Year: 2016 Country: United Kingdom URL: http://www.crim.cam.ac.uk/alumni/theses/Charlotte%20de%20Brito.pdf Shelf Number: 144773 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime HotspotsHigh Crime AreasHotspotsPolice Patrol |
Author: Ingram, Matthew C. Title: Targeting Violence Reduction in Brazil: Policy Implications from a Spatial Analysis of Homicide Summary: Violence in Latin America generates heavy economic, social and political costs for individuals, communities and societies. A particularly pernicious effect of violence is that it undermines citizen confidence in democracy and in their own government. Responding to public fear, politicians across the region have hastily adopted a wide range of policy responses to violence, ranging from militarizing public security, to 'mano dura' crack downs, to negotiating truces with organized crime, to decriminalizing illicit economic activity. Although many of these policies are politically expedient, few are based on evidence of how public policy actually affects rates of violence. By contrast, this paper examines how violence clusters within a country-Brazil-to study how public policies affect homicide rates and how these policies might be further tailored geographically to have greater impact. Brazil provides a particularly useful case for examining the effectiveness of violence-reduction strategies because of the availability of comparable data collected systematically across 5562 municipal units. This allows for an explicitly spatial approach to examining geographic patterns of violence-how violence in one municipality is related to violence in neighboring municipalities, and how predictors of violence are also conditioned by geography. The key added value of the spatial perspective is that it addresses the dependent structure of the data, accounting for the fact that units of analysis (here, municipalities) are connected to each other geographically. In this way, the spatial perspective accounts for the fact that what happens in nearby units may have a meaningful impact on the outcome of interest in a home, focal unit. Thus, the spatial approach is better able to examine compelling phenomena like the spread of violence across units. We visualize data on six types of homicide-aggregate homicides, homicides of men, homicides of women (i.e., "femicides"), firearm-related homicides, youth homicides (ages 15-29) and homicides of victims identified by race as either black or brown (mulatto), i.e., non-white victims-all for 2011, presenting these data in maps. We adopt a municipal level of analysis, and include homicide data from 2011 for the entire country, i.e., on all 5562 municipalities across 27 states (including the Federal District). This allows us to develop maps that identify specific municipalities that constitute cores of statistically significant clusters of violence for each type of homicide. These clusters offer a useful tool for targeting policies aimed at reducing violence. We then develop an analysis based on a spatial regression model, using predictors from the 2010 census and other official sources in Brazil. This paper finds that areas with higher rates of marginalization and of households headed by women who also work and have young children experience higher rates of homicide, which suggests increased support for policies aimed at reducing both marginalization and family disruption. More specifically, the paper finds that policies that expand local coverage of the Bolsa Familia poverty reduction program and reduce the environmental footprint of large, industrial development projects tend to reduce homicide rates, but primarily for certain types of homicide. Thus, violence-reduction policies need to be targeted by type of violence. In addition, the spatial analysis presented in the paper suggests that violence-reduction policies should be targeted regionally rather than at individual communities - informed by the cluster analysis and the spatial regression. Finally, this paper argues that policies aimed at femicides, gun-related homicides, youth homicides and homicides of non-whites should be especially sensitive to geographic patterns, and be built around territorially-targeted policies over and above national policies aimed at homicide more generally. Details: Washington, DC: Latin America Initiative Foreign Policy at BROOKINGS, 2014. 18p. Source: Internet Resource: Policy Brief: Accessed April 28, 2017 at: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Ingram-Policy-Brief.pdf Year: 2014 Country: Brazil URL: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Ingram-Policy-Brief.pdf Shelf Number: 145192 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime ClustersCrime HotspotsFemicidesGun-Related ViolenceHomicidesViolenceViolence PreventionViolent Crime |
Author: Ingram, Matthew C. Title: Geographies of Violence: A Spatial Analysis of Five Types of Homicide in Brazil's Municipalities Summary: Objectives: Examine the spatial distribution of five types of homicide across Brazil's 5,562 municipalities and test the effects of family disruption, marginalization, poverty-reduction programs, environmental degradation, and the geographic diffusion of violence. Methods: Cluster analysis and spatial error, spatial lag, and geographically-weighted regressions. Results: Maps visualize clusters of high and low rates of different types of homicide. Core results from spatial regressions show that some predictors have uniform or stationary effects across all units, while other predictors have uneven, non-stationary effects. Among stationary effects, family disruption has a harmful effect across all types of homicide except femicide, and environmental degradation has a harmful effect, increasing the rates of femicide, gun-related, youth, and nonwhite homicides. Among non-stationary effects, marginalization has a harmful effect across all measures of homicide but poses the greatest danger to nonwhite populations in the northern part of Brazil; the poverty-reduction program Bolsa Familia has a protective, negative effect for most types of homicides, especially for gun-related, youth, and nonwhite homicides. Lastly, homicide in nearby communities increases the likelihood of homicide in one's home community, and this holds across all types of homicide. The diffusion effect also varies across geographic areas; the danger posed by nearby violence is strongest in the Amazon region and in a large section of the eastern coast. Conclusions: Findings help identify the content of violence-reduction policies, how to prioritize different components of these policies, and how to target these policies by type of homicide and geographic area for maximum effect. Details: Notre Dame, IN: The Kellogg Institute for International Studies, University of Notre Dame, 2015. 65p. Source: Internet Resource: Kellogg Institute for International Studies, Working Paper Series: #405: Accessed April 29, 2017 at: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2604096 Year: 2015 Country: Brazil URL: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2604096 Shelf Number: 145194 Keywords: Crime AnalysisFemicideGeographical AnalysisHomicidesMurdersPovertySpatial AnalysisViolent Crime |
Author: Santos, Roberto Title: A Quasi-Experimental Test and Examination of Police Effectiveness in Residential Burglary and Theft from Vehicle Micro-Time Hot Spots Summary: This dissertation tested, through a quasi-experimental design, whether traditional policing strategies are effective in preventing residential burglary and theft from vehicle. A new unit of analysis is examined called micro-time hot spots which are clusters of crime incidents (i.e., crime flare-ups) that occur in micro-time at micro-places. Five years of data from a large police department in the Eastern Florida metropolitan region of the United States were examined. The data were gleaned from crime analysis bulletins as well as the department's intranet system that tracked all police responses to micro-time hot spots. In the quasi-experiment, residential burglary and theft from vehicle were examined separately. The treatment and comparison groups were selected using a robust propensity score matching method. Logistic regression was used to compute the propensity scores which were subsequently matched through greedy 1 to 1 matching, without replacement, and with calipers of .05 and .10 of the standard deviation of the logit for residential burglary and theft from vehicle, respectively. Cases that fell outside the region of support were eliminated. The analysis resulted in 140 pairs - 54 residential burglary and 86 theft from vehicle. Tests of means showed that for both residential burglary and theft from vehicle, separately, there was a significant reduction in crime (p < .001). The reduction in residential burglary was 20.76 percent, for theft from vehicle, 19.65 percent, and for both together, 20.0 percent. An examination of spatial displacement of crime found that there was no spatial displacement in micro-time hot spots that received response. The multivariate analysis of the 140 micro-time hot spots with police response showed that the amount of police response and the quickness of response were significant (p < .001). The more police response and the more quickly the response was implemented, the less crime in the micro-time hot spot. Consequently, this study showed that increased police presence in micro-places of emerging concentrations of crime can lead to significant reductions in residential burglary and theft from vehicle without spatial displacement. These findings have direct implications for police practice, in that to be more effective in crime reduction, police organizations should consider responding to residential burglary and theft from vehicle hot spots of shorter temporal scales. Details: Fort Lauderdale, FL: Nova Southeastern University, 2013. 250p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed October 27, 2017 at: https://search.proquest.com/docview/1466031463?pq-origsite=gscholar Year: 2013 Country: United States URL: https://search.proquest.com/docview/1466031463?pq-origsite=gscholar Shelf Number: 147840 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime Hotspots Police EffectivenessPolice ResponseResidential BurglaryTheft from Vehicle |
Author: Synnott, John Title: Why crime occurs where it does: A psycho-spatial analysis of criminal geography Summary: This study investigates the impact of aspects of geographic location on criminal spatial behaviour. It is also concerned with where crimes occurs and how the location of crime may actually limit the behavioural possibilities of criminality, these limitations are derived, in part, from offenders representations of their offending locations and the potential for desired criminal activity in those locations. The underlying behavioural possibilities for criminal movement relate to the background characteristics of the individuals committing offences. The Thesis develops a locational characteristic paradigm, which puts the focus on where crime occurs reflecting the type of the individual who is likely to commit crime there. This study examines those features of individuals' psychological, physical or cultural backgrounds, as they relate to geography, that prohibit or inhibit forms of criminal movement. The study addresses this by focusing on an offenders' representation of crime opportunities, the distribution of crime locations and offenders considerations when planning their crimes. The study aims to provide a direct challenge to some of the key concepts within the criminal spatial literature, such as routine activity theory, rational choice theory, the psychological importance of the home and the influence of familiarity on crime locations. Individual differences across features of criminality are examined. Real crime cases are explored in order to unearth the differences within the geographic profile of offences. Offender representations of their offending areas are studied in an attempt to establish what these depictions actually represent. The work explores the distribution of offence locations and the rationale offenders put forward for why they offended where they did to establish if there are barriers to offending and how offenders account for these barriers, if at all. The first stage of the research is a Case Study introduction to the crime of Tiger Kidnap (TK) in Ireland. TK is an adaptation of a Standard Armed Robbery offence and is the term used to describe the abduction of a person(s) of importance to a target (generally a bank manager) in which that person(s) is used as collateral until the target complies with the requests of the offenders. What makes TK a unique crime is introduced and the substantial distribution of offence locations, something which has not previously been observed in the criminology literature, is discussed. The first empirical analysis addresses methodological concerns within the measurement of distance data. It challenges the related literature which suggests Crow Flight as a valid and reliable measure of criminal distance data. Previous studies acknowledge that Crow Flight knowingly underestimates the likely distance offenders travel and that it relates to the relative position of locations in the mental representations of distance. It is hypothesised that this difference is likely to be significant, and, that offenders conceptualise distance through routes, not relative positions of location. This was confirmed in the interviews with offenders. This study compliments previous work on this topic by opening the possibility of a new methodological alternative for measuring criminal distance data. The argument for this conceptualisation of distance is based on the advancement in technology and transport primarily, where offenders now have access to route information much more readily than they will have to deal with the relative position of locations. The advance planning found in the current cases show that offenders have gone as far as to travel the routes that they will use, indicating that these distances are considered in terms of routes and the time it takes to travel these routes. The hypothesis is that there is a significant difference between the Crow Flight measure and the Route Distance measure of distance data. A significant distortion in probable distance travelled compared to the Crow Flight measure was found. The findings provide support for the current argument that distance measures in future studies would have greater methodological precision if they were to favour the route distance measure . The work moves to examine the geographical profile of TK offences in Ireland. Building on the first study into distance measurements, and how using route distance appears to be, for Irish offences, a more psychologically valid form of measurement. The second study applied these findings onto the measurement stage of a sample of real cases of TK while also looking at the variation between offences. The hypothesis was that there would be a significant difference between TK in the North and South of Ireland. The analysis found that offenders in the North of Ireland had a significantly reduced geographic profile than offenders in the South. These differences relate to the type of offenders that are operating in those locations. Research from the Home Office and reports from the Police Service of North Ireland has suggested that TK in the North, are committed by ex-paramilitary offenders who are likely to have advanced skills in hostage taking and experience in staging and planning operations of this nature. This type of offender is less bound to the geographical opportunities that offenders in the South can avail of and operate on a much more refined geographic template than their counterparts in the South. This study highlights the distortion that can be found when studying types of offences as a whole, and, specifically, it showed the differences that can exist within the same crime type. The forth stage of the work explored offenders cognitive maps and the information that can be gleaned from the graphic representations of their crimes. The study tested the validity of a revised model of Appleyard's 1970's Sketch Map Classification Scheme. The study questions whether the multi optional classification schemes are too broad to distinguish one style of map from another. The results supported this position, finding that the rigid classification schemes are unreliable as they are too subjective in the manner in which they can be ascribed. However, it was found that there was a distinction between maps that were basic and simple over more complex maps. It was also found that the context behind the drawing, as in what was being represented by the offender, influenced the style of map that was presented. This suggests that knowledge of the background to the offender is just as integral to the process of classifying an individual's cognitive map as is the sketch map itself. The final study explores the role of psychological barriers to crime and offenders interpretation of their offending behaviour. This was achieved through exploring the distribution of crime around the Dublin region in Ireland. The hypothesis was that the distribution of offences would be restricted to the side of the city in which the offender resided. This was supported through the finding that offenders preferred to offend on the side of the city that they lived. This is illustrated in the maps that they marked their crimes on. This was based on the psychological barriers to movement that manifests itself in the River Liffey that divides the North of the city from the South of the City. Offenders rationale for offending on one side of the city over the other highlights an interesting development in that they equate the locations in which they offend to be based on issues removed from the influence of the river partition. Security consideration and closeness to home were offered as reasons why offenders offended where they did. However, when studying the distribution of offence locations they highlight a clear distinction in the form of a geographic arena, based on the river that divides the city. Further examples of this geographic arena are discussed in respect to the distribution of offence locations in the North of Ireland which relate to the border that previously divided the North of Ireland from the South of Ireland. This study highlighted the need for an understanding of not just offender characteristics but also the physical characteristics of the location of crime. The implications of these studies for how we conceptualise criminal spatial movement are discussed. At present, there exist little to no study into the area of spatial context, which is an understanding of the nature of the differences in movement based on the characteristic background of the offender. The special importance of the crime of TK and the unique contributes of this form of criminality is outlined. A criterion based paradigm for the measurement, analysis and interpretation of geographical data is put forward. An improved understanding of specific influencing aspects of offenders' spatial behaviour will enhance the modelling of offender behaviour. This has implications for policing and the investigation of crime generally. Details: Huddersfield, UK: University of Huddersfield, 2013. 273p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed November 29, 2017 at: http://eprints.hud.ac.uk/id/eprint/23486/ Year: 2013 Country: United Kingdom URL: http://eprints.hud.ac.uk/id/eprint/23486/ Shelf Number: 148583 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime and PlaceCriminal GeographySpatial Analysis |
Author: Slot, Brigitte Title: Interwovenness of organised crime and terrorist jihadi groups regarding the procurement of firearms Summary: The question if and how organised crime and terrorist jihadi groups are interwoven regarding the procurement of (automatic) firearms is of great interest for investigative and intelligence services. This research sheds light on the issue through three elements: - a literature review, - an exploration of the added value of social network analysis (SNA), - an illustration of this added value based on a concrete Dutch case. The literature review expounds the (criminological) theory behind the interwovenness of organised crime and terrorist jihadi groups, and elaborates the most recent developments in our thinking about the issue: criminal and terrorist organisations recruit their members from the same pool; perpetrators of (foiled) attacks in Europe often had a criminal background; in the Paris attacks firearms were found from a batch that is connected to a known firearms supply line. With the knowledge about the international and European context as a background, an exploration has been conducted of the added value of SNA on this issue for investigative services. Based on a round of discussions with various departments of the National Police tasked with monitoring developments of this issue, it is concluded that for a variety of reasons currently SNA is applied to a limited extent. After a short explanation of what SNA entails, it is subsequently discussed how an SNA can be applied to studying this nexus. Next, the added value is illustrated through the analysis of a large case involving the smuggling of and trade in firearms: - Based on primary police data (registrations and antecedents) and discussions with involved experts the case is framed and a starting group of suspects is identified. The direct network of these persons has been mapped (in connection with which other persons were they known by the police?), after which the direct network of these newly added persons-of-interest was mapped, thereby resulting in a network comprising the network of our starting group to the second degree. In addition, various personal traits of the members of the network were mapped: were they encountered with firearms? Are they of interest in the context of counterterrorism, extremism and radicalisation (CTER) monitoring? Are the known to be firearms dealers? - In this way, interrelations between over 700 persons were mapped, as well as their profile ('firearms possessor', 'firearms dealer', 'terrorism suspect'). This resulted in 24 larger and smaller networks, which operated independently of one another (no interrelations were found between these networks, based on second degree connections). In additions, new connections that had not previously been visible came to light. - Based on the data gathered, SNA-specific network indicators were calculated, which help with identifying the function of a person within a network: who is important acting as a bridge between sub-networks, who are central actors in a network, who have the most connections with 'important' persons? Proceeding from the values on these indicators, a number of persons have been identified as potentially interesting for follow-up by the investigative services A further deepening of this theme is recommended as a result of this exploration. In the context of this research, a number of concrete possibilities have been described for how to apply SNA within the police agencies to this theme and related issues. SNA can support the process of gathering further information regarding the nexus of organised crime and terrorist jihadi groups, and can assist in the decision-making concerning how to prioritise follow-up investigatory work. Details: Rotterdam: Ecorys, 2017. Executive summary. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed February 2, 2018 at: https://english.wodc.nl/binaries/2738_Summary_tcm29-291432.pdf (full text only available in Dutch) Year: 2017 Country: Netherlands URL: https://english.wodc.nl/binaries/2738_Summary_tcm29-291432.pdf Shelf Number: 148985 Keywords: Crime AnalysisIllegal Arms TradeIllegal FirearmsJihadi GroupsOrganized CrimeTerrorism |
Author: Fabusuyi, Tayo Title: East Liberty Crime Data Analysis Summary: Within a span of five years, 2008 to 2012, overall crime in the residential area of East Liberty has decreased by 49%, and residential property prices have doubled. These developments occurred in an environment where the median income stagnated and actually declined in real terms and where there was minimal change in the racial composition of the neighborhood. This crime reduction is significantly greater than what occurred in the City of Pittsburgh during that period, and is also larger than that observed for comparable neighborhoods in close proximity to East Liberty. A series of questions prompted by these developments are what informed this study. Numeritics, a Pittsburgh-based consulting practice, was approached by the real estate arm of East Liberty Development Incorporated (ELDI), to examine the linkages between these developments and ELDI initiatives. Numeritics was tasked with providing plausible reasons that explain these developments; examining the degree to which ELDI was responsible for them and documenting the process by which these outcomes were achieved while providing some formalism on the process. ELDI staff who live in or around East Liberty came to the realization that crime is a real estate problem and therefore requires a real estate solution. In their experience, most of the criminal activity emanated from or around nuisance properties typically owned by slumlords, an observation buttressed by existing "hot spot" literature on crime that shows that 3% of addresses are responsible for 50% of all service calls to the police. This prompted the decision to embark on targeted acquisition of these properties at scale - a strategy reminiscent of the hot spot theory. Decisions on which properties to target came out of a combination of approaches. Using a "boots on the ground" approach, ELDI staffers became intimately involved in the neighborhood. They listened to complaints from neighbors, talked to the police and examined crime statistics. As a result of this process, East liberty "hot spots" were identified, most of which were either slumlord or abandoned properties. These properties were then targeted for acquisition by ELDI. In total, more than 200 units were purchased, representing 3% of the total rental housing units within the neighborhood. Post-acquisition, effective property managers were put in place to regulate the conduct of the properties and to function as place-owners. This strategy of property acquisition and management was strengthened by a number of complementary initiatives that helped to increase neighborhood cohesiveness. Beginning in 1997, ELDI has been highly conscious of involving neighborhood residents in the planning, decisionmaking and redevelopment process. These efforts allowed for the rebuilding of neighborhood cohesion and trust; what some call "collective efficacy"; the willingness of neighbors to intervene on behalf of the common good. This side effect in turn increases informal social controls; or neighbors looking out for each other, with the result being a positive effect on crime rates. Details: Pittsburgh, PA: Numeritics, 2013. 23p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed February 8, 2018 at: http://helppgh.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Report_of_the_ELDI_Crime_Study.pdf Year: 2013 Country: United States URL: http://helppgh.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Report_of_the_ELDI_Crime_Study.pdf Shelf Number: 149026 Keywords: Collective EfficacyCrime AnalysisCrime HotspotsHotspotsHousing and CrimeNeighborhoods and CrimeResidential Areas and Crime |
Author: Steinberg, Jonny Title: Sector Policing on the West Rand: Three Case Studies Summary: In December 2003 SAPS National Commissioner Jackie Selebi issued a Draft National Instruction on sector policing. This monograph examines how sector policing has been interpreted and implemented on the West Rand. Sectors in the three station precincts are studied - Randfontein, Roodepoort and Kagiso. Sector policing - international and domestic context Sector policing emerged in the early 1970s as one among a host of experiments to address a crisis in American policing. Police leaders and scholars had gone right back to basics and asked what it is that the police do to reduce crime. The endeavour to answer this question has produced a host of policing innovations in the last 30 years. These innovations can be divided into four categories: 1) hotspot or targeted patrolling, 2) controlling risk factors, 3) problem-oriented policing (POP), and 4) community policing (COP). Sector policing is an eclectic composite. It includes COP and POP as its core, definitional components, but it usually includes targeted patrolling and risk factor identification as well. COP is a form of policing that mobilises civilians into crime prevention projects. It has been successful when trained on specific problems. POP borrows from the philosophy of public health interventions and applies it to policing. It 'vaccinates' an area against micro-crime patterns by identifying and managing their causes. The form sector policing takes is shaped in no small part by the host policing culture that receives it. In recent years, South African policing has been characterised by a strong, active national centre, and uneven policing on the ground. The SAPS has come increasingly to rely on high density, high visibility paramilitary policing operations - precisely the sort of policing that a force with a strong centre and weak personnel can execute with accomplishment. Sector policing has been billed as a project to transcend these limitations - to restore grassroots policing. Details: Pretoria: Institute for Security Studies, 2004. 65p. Source: Internet Resource: ISS Monograph No. 110: Accessed April 4, 2018 at: https://oldsite.issafrica.org/uploads/Mono110.pdf Year: 2004 Country: South Africa URL: https://oldsite.issafrica.org/uploads/Mono110.pdf Shelf Number: 149685 Keywords: Community PolicingCrime AnalysisCrime and PlaceCrime HotspotsPolicingProblem-Oriented Policing |
Author: Police Executive Research Forum Title: New National Commitment Required:: The Changing Nature of Crime And Criminal Investigations Summary: To say that computers, communication systems, and other technologies are changing the policing profession is a vast understatement. In recent years, much of PERF's research and policy development work has focused on the impact of new technologies on crime analysis and police use of force. We have also studied new devices such as body-worn cameras and, most recently, the revolution that is occurring in 911 and emergency communications. For this report, we stepped back and assessed the impact of computers and other technologies on the nature of crime itself, and on how technology is changing investigations. As part of our Critical Issues in Policing series, PERF assembled nearly 200 experts in criminal investigations, technology, and police operations and management to explore these issues during a day-long conference in Washington, D.C. We learned about new types of computer-related crimes, and also about criminals' use of technology to commit many old types of crime. For law enforcement agencies to keep up in this new environment, their approaches to criminal investigations must change. Relying on physical evidence and witness statements is no longer sufficient in many cases. Investigators need to know how to access and secure data from mobile devices, social media, Fitbits and other devices that store computerized data, and the so-called "dark web." The reality is that the science of criminal investigations is changing rapidly, and many law enforcement agencies are not prepared for the changes that are taking place. This report is a wake-up call for the policing profession. If we are to be successful in combating crime in the 21st century, agencies must have the training, tools, and skilled personnel to understand the changing nature of crime and to be resourceful in investigating new types of crime. Details: Washington, DC; PERF, 2018. 88p. Source: Internet Resource: Critical Issues in Policing Series: Accessed April 12, 2018 at: http://www.policeforum.org/assets/ChangingNatureofCrime.pdf Year: 2018 Country: United States URL: http://www.policeforum.org/assets/ChangingNatureofCrime.pdf Shelf Number: 149791 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCriminal InvestigationsPolice Technology |
Author: Pape, Edward Allen, Jr. Title: Intersect Policing: Bringing CompStat to the Field Level to Reduce the Fear and Incidence of Crime Summary: CompStat is a computerized crime tracking system that was introduced by the New York City Police Department in 1994 and has been adopted by police departments around the world. The CompStat process acts as an accountability system that calls for commanding officers to reduce the fear and incidence of crime. While the nationwide reduction in crime over the past two decades may be partially attributed to CompStat, the system has also created tension in many police organizations. In addition, it currently fails to involve line members of the organization, those who actually perform the work, in the crime reduction process. In many departments, CompStat has morphed into a bureaucratic monster, creating a culture of fear that has damaged morale and diminished its effectiveness. The purpose of this research was to develop a real-time operating system, using CompStat as a strategic tool, to accomplish the purpose of law enforcement by including the knowledge and experiences from all sworn officers and others with a stake in reducing crime. As the Commanding Officer of Detectives assigned to West Valley Area of the Los Angeles Police Department, I instituted a system, which I termed Intersect Policing, which is coined from Frans Johansson's book (2004), The Medici Effect. This report describes the development and results achieved through the use of Intersect Policing. This work required the use of others' research including performance management, principles of behavior, organizational change, systems, core values, human capability, mental processing ability, mythologies, culture, communication, networking, and organizational learning. Key elements were based on the CompStat model of performance management, Macdonald et al. (2006) Systems Leadership Theory and Johansson's Medici Effect. The study encompassed two years during which the West Valley Area exceeded the average reduction in crime of the entire LAPD, which has continued as of this writing. Although based on a single case, the evidence strongly suggests that Intersect Policing can assist police departments to achieve the purpose of law enforcement, reduce the fear and incidence of crime, change mythologies and culture, and improve morale. Creating an Intersection where all stakeholders in the crime reduction process can communicate and exchange ideas enables police departments to achieve the purpose of law enforcement. Details: Los Angeles: University of Southern California, 2012. 407p. Source: Internet Resource: Dissertation: Accessed April 27, 2018 at: http://digitallibrary.usc.edu/cdm/ref/collection/p15799coll3/id/96435 Year: 2012 Country: United States URL: http://digitallibrary.usc.edu/cdm/ref/collection/p15799coll3/id/96435 Shelf Number: 149921 Keywords: CompStatCrime Analysis Police AccountabilityPolice Administration Police ManagementPolice Performance |
Author: Plan International Title: Unsafe in the City: Sydney Summary: Free to Be is a crowd-mapping website that enables young women to identify and share the location of public spaces that make them feel uneasy and scared or happy and safe, implemented in Sydney in April-May 2018. It was designed in collaboration with Crowdspot, Monash University XYX Lab and young women within the city. Based on Plan International's extensive experience of working with girls and young women in cities through our Safer Cities programme, the research sought to understand more about the experiences of girls and young women. As well as Sydney, Free to Be has been implemented in Delhi, Kampala, Lima, Madrid and Melbourne. The Free to Be tool comprised an interactive map of the city and a survey which allowed girls and young women to drop 'pins' on the map - good or bad - and answer questions about their experiences there, as well as leave comments. A group of young women in Sydney were involved in the design and promotion of the tool, as well as having an opportunity to reflect on the findings to support analysis. In total, 2,083 pins were dropped on spots of the Sydney map, of which 25% denoted good experiences (516) and 75% bad (1,567). Good places were characterised by being busy, often with working people. This was closely followed by the place having a good 'community environment' or being well known to the participant. The threat of sexual harassment with and without physical contact was the main issue identified in connection with bad pins. Over two-thirds of the comments on bad pins included sexual harassment of some kind and 63% of all the pins identified gender-based discrimination as a factor. Discrimination based on ethnicity was identified in 10% of the pins (the highest of all the cities), usually alongside gender discrimination, highlighting the intersectional nature of discrimination and harassment in Sydney. On the street was the most likely location for bad pins, often alongside to/from work or school and public transport. Strong negative clusters tended to form around train stations and bus interchanges. These data demonstrate the compromised freedom for young women and girls moving around their city. Harassment directed at young women and girls, and especially those of the LGBTIQA community, is apparently exacerbated by the lockout laws in Sydney, and the lack of public transport available at corresponding hours. This indicates the complexity of access to, and safety in, the city - an intervention brought in to protect one part of the community increased the pressure on others. Women and girls change their behaviour in response to these challenges: nearly half of those recording bad pins (47%) avoided the area if they were alone and 12% simply never went back to the location. When asked how they responded to bad incidents, 20 participants reported that they stopped studying or quit their job because of their experiences. For more than a third of all the pins (36%), young women were resigned to the fact that such incidents are so frequent that they are used to it. Consequently, they take their own precautions such as walking fast through such areas with their phones at the ready. Reporting of events to the authorities was low at 9%, and in more than two-thirds of these cases (69%), the authorities apparently did nothing. Based on these findings, young women in Sydney made the following recommendations: 1) Behaviour change: - Changing the blame culture: listen to and act upon the stories of women and girls - Challenging toxic masculinity - Allies and bystanders: empowering them to call out harassment and intervene safely 2) Girls' participation in decision-making: listen to and work with girls and young women, respect their experiences and recommendations, and involve them in co-designing their cities. 3) Enforcement and accountability: - Strengthening reporting mechanisms - Improving the responsiveness of security services and the police - Clarification of laws and enforcement regarding street harassment Details: Melbourne: Plan International, 2018. 21p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed November 3, 2018 at: http://apo.org.au/system/files/196691/apo-nid196691-1025636.pdf Year: 2018 Country: Australia URL: http://apo.org.au/system/files/196691/apo-nid196691-1025636.pdf Shelf Number: 153246 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime HotspotsCrime MappingFear of CrimePublic SafetySexual AssaultSexual HarassmentViolence Against Women |
Author: Saens N, Rodrigo Title: How Much is the Cost of Crime in Chile? Summary: Using annual data for period 1994-2014, in this work we estimate and analyze the cost of crime in Chile. It is used an economic-accounting approach to distinguish between three types of costs: cost of crime prevention, cost of crime consequences and cost of crime response. The results of this exercise show an increasing trend of the total cost of crime, from 1.6 percent of GDP in 1994 to 2.5 percent of GDP in 2014. Although public resources to prevent and repel crime have increased considerably over the past 20 years, the private security industry shows a significant expansion in the same period. This shows that in Chile there is still a gap between the security demanded by citizens and the security provided by government institutions. Details: Chile: Facultad de Economia y Negocios de la Universidad de Talca, 2015. 21p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed November 8, 2018 at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/281361292_Cuanto_cuesta_el_delito_en_Chile Year: 2015 Country: Chile URL: file:///C:/Users/AuthUser/Downloads/Saens2015-08-31.pdf Shelf Number: 153343 Keywords: ChileCost of crimeCost of crime consequencesCost of crime preventionCost of crime responseCosts of crimeCrime analysisPrivate security industry |
Author: Mayhew, Pat Title: New Zealand Crime and Safety Survey: 2006 Summary: This report presents results from the 2006 New Zealand Crime and Safety Survey (NZCASS). The survey measured the amount of crime experienced by New Zealand residents over the age of 15 by asking them directly about criminal victimisation they had experienced since the beginning of 2005. The response rate was 59% for the main sample, and 56% for a booster sample of Maori. This survey is part of an ongoing research programme. The future work will provide important information about trends in crime from an alternative perspective to Police-recorded crime rates. Two previous victimisation surveys went under the title of the New Zealand National Survey of Crime Victims (NZNSCV). The first was in 1996, the second in 2001. Changes in survey design limit the comparisons that can be made between the NZCASS and the two earlier surveys. What the survey tells us -- The 2006 NZCASS offers a wide range of information. - It measures the amount of crime in New Zealand in 2005 by asking people directly about crimes they have experienced. The survey includes crimes not reported to the Police, so it is an important complement to Police records. Victims do not report crime for various reasons. Without the NZCASS, we would have no information on these unreported crimes. - It looks at the reasons that victims give for not reporting offences to the Police, and how well they thought the Police responded when they did report a crime. - It provides some comparisons with the 1996 and 2001 survey findings. However, because of changes in survey design, there are substantial limitations on some of these comparisons. - It helps identify those most at risk of different types of crime in terms of age, gender, ethnicity, etc. Police figures currently tell us little on this front. - It gives information on the nature of victimisation, such as its physical, financial and emotional effects Details: Wellington: New Zealand Ministry of Justice, 2007. 124p. Source: Internet Resource: Accessed May 4, 2019. Available from the Rutgers Criminal Justice Library. Year: 2006 Country: New Zealand URL: Shelf Number: 155661 Keywords: Crime AnalysisCrime Prevention Crime Rates Crime Statistics Crime Survey Victimization |